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Month

April 2011

41 posts

Don’t Mean To Be Rude, But The Economy Sucks Henry Blodget | Apr. 28, 2011, 11:11 AM 

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More People Think The Economy Is In A Depression Than Think The Economy Is Growing
In the past couple of months, a disconnect has developed between the perception of the US economy and the reality. The perception is that everything’s just fine: The continuation of a solid if unspectacular recovery that began in the summer of 2009. Stocks continue to rise. Corporate profits continue to boom. The unemployment rate continues to tick down. Wall Street continues to coin money.

But the reality is that the recovery has never actually been strong and that many key metrics have recently turned south—despite the fact that the government still has its foot stomped on the stimulus gas.

What metrics?

Well, first and foremost, GDP growth.

We learned this morning that the economy grew at a pathetic 1.8% in Q1. That’s way below the 3%-4% rate that most economists consider normal. And it’s miles below the 5%-7% growth that normally follows a recession as sharp and severe as the one we just had.

Meanwhile, the Fed still has interest rates parked at zero, and is still conducting emergency stimulus measures like QE2. And the government’s huge stimulus package from 2009 is still driving spending. (And, needless to say, it certainly hasn’t produced the desired private-sector growth.)

1.8% GDP growth in the face of massive stimulus is the equivalent of your car sputtering down the highway at 45 miles per hour while you have the gas pedal floored. You might be glad that the car hasn’t broken down completely, but you certainly won’t conclude that all is well. And you also might conclude—wisely—that if 45 is the best you can do with the gas pedal floored, things may be about to get a whole lot worse.

And it’s not just growth that blows.

In the past few weeks, initial jobless claims have ticked back above 400,000 per week, considerably higher than economists expected. Jobless claims above 400,000 are generally considered a sign of a contracting job market, not a growing one. If the recent jobless claims trends continue, the monthly jobs figures may soon go from “okay, not great” to downright lousy again.

And then there’s the unemployment rate. It’s still almost 9%! Imagine if, back in 2007, someone had told you that in 2011 the unemployment rate would be 9% and that some folks would consider that encouraging. You’d have dismissed them as a flat-earther or Armageddonist.

What else?

House prices are falling again—so quickly that, in many parts of the country, they’re now setting new post-bubble lows.  Remember all the hand-wringing two years ago about how the economy would never really recover until we got a floor in house prices—and, therefore, how the government had to do everything possible to put a floor under house prices? Well, now the government appears to have given up. (And that’s actually a good thing, because there’s no government price intervention in history that we know of that has permanently prevented prices from reverting to the level the market will support. Governments can delay the inevitable, but they can’t prevent it. And house prices are still “expensive” on a historical basis.)

Inflation is taking hold. As anyone who actually buys things knows, things cost a lot more than they did a little while ago. Things like gas (double the price of a couple of years ago, up nearly 40% this year alone), food, rent, healthcare, insurance premiums, and so on.  House prices are dropping, but most people don’t have to buy houses. Ben Bernanke can talk until he’s blue in the face about how there’s no inflation, or shouldn’t be because of the “slack” in the system, but people who actually buy things know better.  A rise in inflation means that you’ll start hearing the word “stagflation” quite frequently. The word “stagflation” is not a happy word. It’s the word that characterized the 1970s: Crappy economic growth combined with wild inflation.  Stagflation destroys savers and those who lived on fixed incomes (many retirees). It also punishes anyone trying to run a business. And it’s hell on stock prices.

Corporate profit margins are at near-record highs, but this party may finally be over.  This morning, Procter & Gamble said that their margins are getting slammed by rising commodity prices. Like most companies, P&G will presumably try to pass these costs through to the rest of us, but given high unemployment, huge debt burdens, and crappy wage growth, it’s unlikely that consumers will swallow them. So corporate profit margins, which have helped levitate the stock market for the past two years, may finally begin to compress. (Which, by the way, they always do—despite all the great arguments about why it’s “different this time.”)

Anything else? Yes, there are other things, too.

But the bottom line is, the economic recovery is not going well. It’s going badly. And the recent signs suggest that it may be about to get worse—just as the Fed’s latest emergency stimulus measure (QE2) begins to run out.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-economy-sucks-2011-4#ixzz1KpatmC5v
Apr 28, 2011
Robert Reich: The Wageless Recovery → robertreich.org

robertreich:

This week’s biggest economic show occurs tomorrow (Wednesday) when Fed chair Ben Bernanke steps in front of the cameras for the Fed’s first-ever news conference. The question on everyone’s mind: Will the Fed signal it’s now more worried about inflation than recession?

Much of Wall Street thinks…

Apr 28, 201178 notes

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Infographic: The Internet Is (Maybe) Killing the Planet By Nicholas Jackson

Most of the press that followed Greenpeace’s Dirty Data report last week focused on how Apple is, the organization claims, the dirtiest of the big tech companies because of its coal-powered data centers in the Carolinas. But the report, timed to coincide with Earth Day, also had some negative things to say about the Internet in general. “The Internet accounts for more electricity consumption than all of Russia, according to Greenpeace,” I wrote last week. “If it ‘was a country, it would rank 5th for the amount of electricity usage, just below Japan,’ the report finds. ‘But unlike geographical states, the Internet’s data centres can be found all over the world, clustering in locations that offer strong tax incentives and cheap, but often dirty, electricity.’”

WordStream, a search engine marketing company, pulled together several sources to build aninfographic that takes a closer look at how much energy the Internet uses. There’s a lot of information here, but we’ve pulled out some of the most striking points:

  • In 2005 the United States had a total of 10.3 million data centers and, combined, they consumed enough energy to power the entire UK for two months.
  • Between the years 2000 and 2006, total energy consumption for the Internet increased 200 percent while total traffic grew 32,000,000 percent.
  • While about 40 percent of all workers in the United States could work from home due to advances in technology, only 2.5 percent telecommute. 
  • Performing one Google search for “soylent green” produces the same amount of CO2 as driving a car for three inches. 
  • Every month, Google produced 260,000 kg of CO2, which is enough to power a freezer for 5,400 years.
  • A single spam message produces 0.3 grams of CO2. With about 62 trillion spam messages sent every year, the industry produces the equivalent CO2 emissions as 1.6 million cars.

This article available online at:

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/04/infographic-the-internet-is-maybe-killing-the-planet/237824/

Copyright © 2011 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All Rights Reserved.

Apr 25, 2011

Seven lessons to learn from Amazon’s outage By Phil Wainewright | April 24, 2011, 3:45pm PDT

Summary

After a harrowing four days, the remaining few customers still affected by Amazon’s major outage are gradually coming back online. Here are seven key lessons to learn from this episode.

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As of the latest update this afternoon on Amazon’s Service Health Dashboard, only a handful of customers are still waiting for their EBS and RDS instances to be restored after Thursday’s harrowing outage. But for everyone involved (not least Amazon’s own operations staff) it’s been a very long four days (see latest Techmeme discussion). What are the lessons to learn?

1. Read your cloud provider’s SLA very carefully

Amazingly, this almost four-day outage has not breached Amazon’s EC2 SLA, which as a FAQ explains, “guarantees 99.95% availability of the service within a Region over a trailing 365 period.” Since it has been the EBS and RDS services rather than EC2 itself that has failed (and all the failures have been restricted to Availability Zones within a single Region), the SLA has not been breached, legally speaking. That’s no consolation for those affected of course, nor is it any excuse for the disruption they’ve suffered. But it certainly gives pause for thought.

2. Don’t take your provider’s assurances for granted

Many of the affected customers were paying extra to host their instances in more than one Availability Zone (AZ). Amazon actually recommends this course of action to ensure resilience against failure. Each AZ, according to Amazon’s FAQ, “runs on its own physically distinct, independent infrastructure, and is engineered to be highly reliable. Common points of failures like generators and cooling equipment are not shared across Availability Zones. Additionally, they are physically separate, such that even extremely uncommon disasters such as fires, tornados or flooding would only affect a single Availability Zone.” Unfortunately, this turned out to be a technical specification rather than a contractual guarantee. It will take Amazon quite some effort to repair the reputational damage this event has brought upon it.

Justin Santa Barbara, founder and CEO of FathomDB was forthright in his blog post on Why the sky is falling:

“AWS broke their promises on the failure scenarios for Availability Zones … The sites that are down were correctly designing to the ‘contract’; the problem is that AWS didn’t follow their own specifications. Whether that happened through incompetence or dishonesty or something a lot more forgivable entirely, we simply don’t know at this point.”

While it’s easy to be wise after the event, Amazon’s vulnerability to this type of failure may have been visible on a deep-enough due diligence exercise. As Amazon competitor Joyent’s Chief Scientist Jason Hoffmannotes on the company’s blog, “This is not a ’speed bump’ or a ‘cloud failure’ or ‘growing pains’, this is a foreseeable consequence of fundamental architectural decisions made by Amazon.”

3. Most customers will still forgive Amazon its failings

However badly they’ve been affected, providers have sung Amazon’s praises in recognition of how much it’s helped them run a powerful infrastructure at lower cost and effort. Many prefaced criticisms with gratitude for what Amazon had made possible, such as BigDoor’s CEO Keith Smith:

“AWS has allowed us to scale a complex system quickly, and extremely cost effectively. At any given point in time, we have 12 database servers, 45 app servers, six static servers and six analytics servers up and running. Our systems auto-scale when traffic or processing requirements spike, and auto-shrink when not needed in order to conserve dollars.”

4. There are many ways you can supplement a cloud provider’s resilience

As O’Reilly’s George Reese points out, “if your systems failed in the Amazon cloud this week, it wasn’t Amazon’s fault. You either deemed an outage of this nature an acceptable risk or you failed to design for Amazon’s cloud computing model.” It’s useful to review the techniques customers have used to minimize their exposure to failures at Amazon.

Twilio, for example, didn’t go down. Although the company hasn’t explained exactly what its exposure was to the affected North Virginia Availability Zones, it has described its architectural design principles in a first entry on its new engineering blog by co-founder and CTO Evan Cooke. These include decomposing resources into independent pools, building in support for quick timeouts and retries, and having idempotent interfaces that allow multiple retries of failed requests. Of course all this is easier said than done if all your experience is in designing tightly-coupled enterprise application stacks that assume a resilient local area network. Cooke’s post goes on to describe some of the characteristics that make Twilio’s architecture capable of operating in this more fault tolerant manner. To start with, “Separate business logic into small stateless services that can be organized in simple homogeneous pools.” Another step is to partition the reading and writing of data: “if there is a large pool of data that is written infrequently, separate the reads and writes to that data … For example, by writing to a database master and reading from database slaves, you can scale up the number of read slaves to improve availability and performance.”

Another site that didn’t go down is NetFlix, which runs all its infrastructure in the Amazon cloud. Again, it’s not clear how exposed its operations were to the affected Amazon resources, but a Hacker News thread usefully summarizes some of the principles employed.

5. Building in extra resilience comes at a cost

Bob Warfield describes how a previous company used Amazon.com infrastructure in a way that allowed it to “bring back the service in another region if the one we were in totally failed within 20 minutes and with no more than 5 minutes of data loss.” As he goes on to say, the choices you make about the length of outage you’re prepared to support have consequences for the cost your customers or enterprise must fund. “Smart users and PaaS vendors will look into packaging several options because you should be backed up to S3 regardless, so what you’re basically arguing about and paying extra for is how ‘warm’ the alternate site is and how much has to be spun up from scratch via S3.”

6. Understanding the trade-offs helps you frame what to ask

There are questions you should be asking to satisfy yourself that a cloud service you rely on is not exposing you to a similar failure (or at least that, if it is, you understand this and are willing to bear the consequences in return for a cheaper cost). Referring to NetFlix’s practice of randomly killing resources and services in order to test its resilience, Bob Warfield adds this advice:

“That’s likely another good question to ask your PaaS and Cloud vendors — “Do you take down production infrastructure to test your failover?” Of course you’d like to see that and not just take their word for it too.”

7. Lack of transparency may be Amazon’s ‘Achilles heel’

Several affected customers have complained of the lack of useful information forthcoming from Amazon during the outage. BigDoor CEO Keith Smith wrote, “If Amazon had been more forthcoming with what they are experiencing, we would have been able to restore our systems sooner.” GoodData’s Roman Stanek called on Amazon to tear down its wall of secrecy:

“Our dev-ops people can’t read from the tea-leaves how to organize our systems for performance, scalability and most importantly disaster recovery. The difference between ‘reasonable’ SLAs and ‘five-9s’ is the difference between improvisation and the complete alignment of our respective operational processes … There should not be communication walls between IaaS, PaaS, SaaS and customer layers of the cloud infrastructure.”

Amazon’s challenge in the coming weeks is to show that it is prepared to give its customers the information it needs to build in that resilience reliably. If it does not meet that need and allows others to do better, it may gradually start losing its dominant position today in IaaS provision.

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Apr 25, 2011

35 Facts That Show Just How Much The Average American Has Been Destroyed By This Economy Michael Snyder, The American Dream | Apr. 24, 2011, 8:42 AM |

Image: Kevin Bauman

Michael Snyder

URL

Michael Snyder editor of theeconomiccollapseblog.com

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  • 35 Statistics That Show The Average American Family Has Been Broke Down, Tore Down, Beat Down, Busted And Disgusted By This Economy

The economic statistics that you are about to read are incredibly shocking, but they are also very, very real.  Tonight there are going to be millions of men and women all across America that cannot sleep because they are consumed with anxiety about their financial problems.  Click here to see the facts >

Even as you read this, there are a lot of parents out there that are trying to figure out how to explain to their children why their homes are being taken away.  There are also hordes of very hard working Americans that are incredibly frustrated because they have sent out thousands of resumes and yet they can’t seem to get a job interview. 

Have you ever been at a point where you couldn’t pay the mortgage or put food on the table for your family?  It can be an absolutely soul-crushing experience.  In fact, there are some cities in the U.S. that have been so utterly devastated by this economy that it seems as though virtually everyone has had the hope sucked right out of them. 

The mainstream media is trying to convince all of us that we are in an economic recovery, but that is a lie.  The truth is that we are in the middle of a long-term economic decline and the greatest economy in the history of the world is dying right in front of our eyes.

The average American family is under more economic stress right now than at any other time since the Great Depression.


Only 45.4% of Americans were employed 2010 — the lowest level since 1983

Image: aflcio via flickr

Source: USA Today Only 66.8% of American men were employed last year — the lowest level ever in the U.S.

Image: hometownboy

Source: USA Today In the U.S. one-fourth of all income is earned by 1% of the people

Image: Flickr User greggoconnell (www.flickr.com

Source: Shrinkage is Good Rising prices are increasing stress on American family budgets

Image: monsieur paradis on flickr

According to John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics, if the U.S. government measured inflation the way that it did before 1980 the inflation rate would be much different.

For example, Williams says that inflation rose at a 9.6 annual rate during the month of February using the old measurement.

74% of Americans will slow down their spending in coming months due to rising prices

Source: CNBC The price of U.S. crude oil has risen $20 a barrel over the last two months

Image: kimonomania

And the average price of a gallon of gasoline in America is now about $3.79. 

At this point, the average price of gasoline is about one dollar higher than it was one year ago. 

Since the average American household goes through about 750 gallons of gas a year, that means that in 2011 American families will spend somewhere around $750 more for gas. 

So just what is the average American family supposed to do if a gallon of gasoline soon costs 4 or even 5 dollars a gallon?

Americans spend about 23% of their income on food and gas

Image: randysonofrobertviaFlickr

Source: Business Insider 60% of California public school students qualify for free or reduced-price lunches

Image: Micah Sittig via Flickr

Source: ABC In the past 48 months food stamps recipients have doubled in North Carolina

Source: Salisbury Post U.S. workers compete for jobs with workers in places such as Indonesia

Image: impactlab

Full-time workers there make as little as two dollars a day.  U.S. home values have fallen an astounding 6.3 trillion dollars since the peak of the real estate market in 2005

Image: AP

Source: My Budget 360 In 2005 the median property tax on a home in the United States was $1,614 — it’s now $1,917

Source: Bloomberg Business Week 8 million Americans are at least one month behind on their mortgage payments

Image: Trulia

Source: US News 31% of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages

Source: The Hill Two years ago, the average U.S. homeowner that was being foreclosed upon had not made a mortgage payment in 11 months

Today, the average U.S. homeowner being foreclosed upon has not made a mortgage payment in 17 months. 1 million homes were foreclosed upon in 2010

Image: Stevendepolo via flickr

Source: Yahoo 13% of all the homes in the United States are sitting empty

Image: Nick Bastian via flickr

Source: CNN Money The number of children living in poverty has gone up by about 2 million in the past 2 years

Image: hdptcar via flickr

Source: Economy in Crisis According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average length of unemployment in the U.S. is now an all-time record 39 weeks

Image: Vacacion on flickr

Source: The Economic Collapse There are 10% fewer “middle class jobs” in the United States today than there were a decade ago

Image: More Good Foundation

Source: The Economic Collapse The United States has lost an average of 50,000 manufacturing jobs per month since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001

AP

Image: AP

Source: The Economic Collapse Half of all American workers now earn $505 or less per week

Image: ChuckHolton via Flikr

Source: Tax.com Total U.S. credit card debt is more than 8 times larger than it was just 30 years ago

Image: v i p e z via Flcikr

Source: My Budget 360 Americans now owe more than $904 billion on student loans, which is a new all-time high

Image: Adam Procter via flickr

Source: Financial Aid Average household debt in the United States has now reached a level of 136% of average household income

In China, average household debt is only 17% of average household income. A staggering 25 percent of all American adults now have a credit score below 599

Source: USA Today 1.5 million Americans filed for bankruptcy in 2010 — that represented the fourth yearly increase in bankruptcy filings in a row

Image: yourdon via Flickr

Source:US Courts Over the last decade, the number of Americans without health insurance has risen from about 38 million to about 52 million

Source: Hospital Review One study found that approximately 41 percent of working age Americans either have medical bill problems or are currently paying off medical debt

Source: EurekAlert According to a report published in The American Journal of Medicine, medical bills are a major factor in more than 60 percent of all personal bankruptcies in the United States

Of those bankruptcies that were caused by medical bills, approximately 75 percent of them involved individuals that actually did have health insurance. In 1965, only one out of every 50 Americans was on Medicaid

 Today, one out of every 6 Americans is on Medicaid. Between 2007 and 2009 median household net worth in the United States fell by 23 percent

Source: CNN According to the Federal Reserve median household debt in the United States has risen to $75,600

Image: mellydoll via Flickr

Source: CNN Almost 25 percent of all U.S. households now have zero or negative net worth — in 2007, that number was just 18.6 percent

Image: flickr

Source: Economy in Crisis
Employee compensation in the US is the lowest it has been relative to gross domestic product in over 50 years

Image: Orphanjones via Flickr

Source: Financial Armageddon And still it continues…

Image: Kevin Bauman

Check out the 18 US cities where home prices continue to dive> Tags: Economic Crisis, America, Features | Get Alerts for these topics »

Read more: http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/35-statistics-that-show-the-average-american-family-has-been-broke-down-tore-down-beat-down-busted-and-disgusted-by-this-economy#ixzz1KYGvjVqe
Apr 25, 2011
Robert Reich: Beware the "Middle Ground" of the Great Budget Debate → robertreich.org

robertreich:

How debates are framed is critical because the “center” or “middle ground” is supposedly halfway between the two extremes.

We continue to hear that the Great Budget Debate has two sides: The President and the Democrats want to cut the budget deficit mainly by increasing taxes on the rich and…

Apr 25, 201184 notes

The Science of Why We Don’t Believe Science How our brains fool us on climate, creationism, and the vaccine-autism link.

By Chris Mooney | Mon Apr. 18, 2011 3:00 AM PDT

“A MAN WITH A CONVICTION is a hard man to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.” So wrote the celebrated Stanford University psychologist Leon Festinger [1] (PDF), in a passage that might have been referring to climate change denial—the persistent rejection, on the part of so many Americans today, of what we know about global warming and its human causes. But it was too early for that—this was the 1950s—and Festinger was actually describing a famous case study [2] in psychology.

Festinger and several of his colleagues had infiltrated the Seekers, a small Chicago-area cult whose members thought they were communicating with aliens—including one, “Sananda,” who they believed was the astral incarnation of Jesus Christ. The group was led by Dorothy Martin, a Dianetics devotee who transcribed the interstellar messages through automatic writing.

Through her, the aliens had given the precise date of an Earth-rending cataclysm: December 21, 1954. Some of Martin’s followers quit their jobs and sold their property, expecting to be rescued by a flying saucer when the continent split asunder and a new sea swallowed much of the United States. The disciples even went so far as to remove brassieres and rip zippers out of their trousers—the metal, they believed, would pose a danger on the spacecraft.

Festinger and his team were with the cult when the prophecy failed. First, the “boys upstairs” (as the aliens were sometimes called) did not show up and rescue the Seekers. Then December 21 arrived without incident. It was the moment Festinger had been waiting for: How would people so emotionally invested in a belief system react, now that it had been soundly refuted?

At first, the group struggled for an explanation. But then rationalization set in. A new message arrived, announcing that they’d all been spared at the last minute. Festinger summarized the extraterrestrials’ new pronouncement: “The little group, sitting all night long, had spread so much light that God had saved the world from destruction.” Their willingness to believe in the prophecy had saved Earth from the prophecy!

From that day forward, the Seekers, previously shy of the press and indifferent toward evangelizing, began to proselytize. “Their sense of urgency was enormous,” wrote Festinger. The devastation of all they had believed had made them even more certain of their beliefs.

In the annals of denial, it doesn’t get much more extreme than the Seekers. They lost their jobs, the press mocked them, and there were efforts to keep them away from impressionable young minds. But while Martin’s space cult might lie at on the far end of the spectrum of human self-delusion, there’s plenty to go around. And since Festinger’s day, an array of new discoveries in psychology and neuroscience has further demonstrated how our preexisting beliefs, far more than any new facts, can skew our thoughts and even color what we consider our most dispassionate and logical conclusions. This tendency toward so-called “motivated reasoning [3]” helps explain why we find groups so polarized over matters where the evidence is so unequivocal: climate change, vaccines, “death panels,” the birthplace and religion of the president [4] (PDF), and much else. It would seem that expecting people to be convinced by the facts flies in the face of, you know, the facts.

The theory of motivated reasoning builds on a key insight of modern neuroscience [5] (PDF): Reasoning is actually suffused with emotion (or what researchers often call “affect”). Not only are the two inseparable, but our positive or negative feelings about people, things, and ideas arise much more rapidly than our conscious thoughts, in a matter of milliseconds—fast enough to detect with an EEG device, but long before we’re aware of it. That shouldn’t be surprising: Evolution required us to react very quickly to stimuli in our environment. It’s a “basic human survival skill,” explains political scientist Arthur Lupia [6] of the University of Michigan. We push threatening information away; we pull friendly information close. We apply fight-or-flight reflexes not only to predators, but to data itself.

We apply fight-or-flight reflexes not only to predators, but to data itself.

We’re not driven only by emotions, of course—we also reason, deliberate. But reasoning comes later, works slower—and even then, it doesn’t take place in an emotional vacuum. Rather, our quick-fire emotions can set us on a course of thinking that’s highly biased, especially on topics we care a great deal about.

Consider a person who has heard about a scientific discovery that deeply challenges her belief in divine creation—a new hominid, say, that confirms our evolutionary origins. What happens next, explains political scientist Charles Taber [7] of Stony Brook University, is a subconscious negative response to the new information—and that response, in turn, guides the type of memories and associations formed in the conscious mind. “They retrieve thoughts that are consistent with their previous beliefs,” says Taber, “and that will lead them to build an argument and challenge what they’re hearing.”

In other words, when we think we’re reasoning, we may instead be rationalizing. Or to use an analogy offered by University of Virginia psychologist Jonathan Haidt[8]: We may think we’re being scientists, but we’re actually being lawyers [9] (PDF). Our “reasoning” is a means to a predetermined end—winning our “case”—and is shot through with biases. They include “confirmation bias,” in which we give greater heed to evidence and arguments that bolster our beliefs, and “disconfirmation bias,” in which we expend disproportionate energy trying to debunk or refute views and arguments that we find uncongenial.

That’s a lot of jargon, but we all understand these mechanisms when it comes to interpersonal relationships. If I don’t want to believe that my spouse is being unfaithful, or that my child is a bully, I can go to great lengths to explain away behavior that seems obvious to everybody else—everybody who isn’t too emotionally invested to accept it, anyway. That’s not to suggest that we aren’t also motivated to perceive the world accurately—we are. Or that we never change our minds—we do. It’s just that we have other important goals besides accuracy—including identity affirmation and protecting one’s sense of self—and often those make us highly resistant to changing our beliefs when the facts say we should.

Modern science originated from an attempt to weed out such subjective lapses—what that great 17th century theorist of the scientific method, Francis Bacon, dubbed the “idols of the mind.” Even if individual researchers are prone to falling in love with their own theories, the broader processes of peer review and institutionalized skepticism are designed to ensure that, eventually, the best ideas prevail.

Scientific evidence is highly susceptible to misinterpretation. Giving ideologues scientific data that’s relevant to their beliefs is like unleashing them in the motivated-reasoning equivalent of a candy store.

Our individual responses to the conclusions that science reaches, however, are quite another matter. Ironically, in part because researchers employ so much nuance and strive to disclose all remaining sources of uncertainty, scientific evidence is highly susceptible to selective reading and misinterpretation. Giving ideologues or partisans scientific data that’s relevant to their beliefs is like unleashing them in the motivated-reasoning equivalent of a candy store.

Sure enough, a large number of psychological studies have shown that people respond to scientific or technical evidence in ways that justify their preexisting beliefs. In a classic 1979 experiment [10] (PDF), pro- and anti-death penalty advocates were exposed to descriptions of two fake scientific studies: one supporting and one undermining the notion that capital punishment deters violent crime and, in particular, murder. They were also shown detailed methodological critiques of the fake studies—and in a scientific sense, neither study was stronger than the other. Yet in each case, advocates more heavily criticized the study whose conclusions disagreed with their own, while describing the study that was more ideologically congenial as more “convincing.”

Since then, similar results have been found for how people respond to “evidence” about affirmative action, gun control, the accuracy of gay stereotypes [11], and much else. Even when study subjects are explicitly instructed to be unbiased and even-handed about the evidence, they often fail.

And it’s not just that people twist or selectively read scientific evidence to support their preexisting views. According to research by Yale Law School professor Dan Kahan [12] and his colleagues, people’s deep-seated views about morality, and about the way society should be ordered, strongly predict whom they consider to be a legitimate scientific expert in the first place—and thus where they consider “scientific consensus” to lie on contested issues.

In Kahan’s research [13] (PDF), individuals are classified, based on their cultural values, as either “individualists” or “communitarians,” and as either “hierarchical” or “egalitarian” in outlook. (Somewhat oversimplifying, you can think of hierarchical individualists as akin to conservative Republicans, and egalitarian communitarians as liberal Democrats.) In one study, subjects in the different groups were asked to help a close friend determine the risks associated with climate change, sequestering nuclear waste, or concealed carry laws: “The friend tells you that he or she is planning to read a book about the issue but would like to get your opinion on whether the author seems like a knowledgeable and trustworthy expert.” A subject was then presented with the résumé of a fake expert “depicted as a member of the National Academy of Sciences who had earned a Ph.D. in a pertinent field from one elite university and who was now on the faculty of another.” The subject was then shown a book excerpt by that “expert,” in which the risk of the issue at hand was portrayed as high or low, well-founded or speculative. The results were stark: When the scientist’s position stated that global warming is real and human-caused, for instance, only 23 percent of hierarchical individualists agreed the person was a “trustworthy and knowledgeable expert.” Yet 88 percent of egalitarian communitarians accepted the same scientist’s expertise. Similar divides were observed on whether nuclear waste can be safely stored underground and whether letting people carry guns deters crime. (The alliances did not always hold. In another study [14](PDF), hierarchs and communitarians were in favor of laws that would compel the mentally ill to accept treatment, whereas individualists and egalitarians were opposed.)

Head-on attempts to persuade can sometimes trigger a backfire effect, where people not only fail to change their minds when confronted with the facts—they may hold their wrong views more tenaciously than ever.

In other words, people rejected the validity of a scientific source because its conclusion contradicted their deeply held views—and thus the relative risks inherent in each scenario. A hierarchal individualist finds it difficult to believe that the things he prizes (commerce, industry, a man’s freedom to possess a gun to defend his family [14]) (PDF) could lead to outcomes deleterious to society. Whereas egalitarian communitarians tend to think that the free market causes harm, that patriarchal families mess up kids, and that people can’t handle their guns. The study subjects weren’t “anti-science”—not in their own minds, anyway. It’s just that “science” was whatever they wanted it to be. “We’ve come to a misadventure, a bad situation where diverse citizens, who rely on diverse systems of cultural certification, are in conflict,” says Kahan [15].

And that undercuts the standard notion that the way to persuade people is via evidence and argument. In fact, head-on attempts to persuade can sometimes trigger a backfire effect, where people not only fail to change their minds when confronted with the facts—they may hold their wrong views more tenaciously than ever.

Take, for instance, the question of whether Saddam Hussein possessed hidden weapons of mass destruction just before the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. When political scientists Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler showed subjects fake newspaper articles [16](PDF) in which this was first suggested (in a 2004 quote from President Bush) and then refuted (with the findings of the Bush-commissioned Iraq Survey Group report, which found no evidence of active WMD programs in pre-invasion Iraq), they found that conservatives were more likely than before to believe the claim. (The researchers also tested how liberals responded when shown that Bush did not actually “ban” embryonic stem-cell research. Liberals weren’t particularly amenable to persuasion, either, but no backfire effect was observed.)

Another study gives some inkling of what may be going through people’s minds when they resist persuasion. Northwestern University sociologist Monica Prasad [17]and her colleagues wanted to test whether they could dislodge the notion that Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda were secretly collaborating among those most likely to believe it—Republican partisans from highly GOP-friendly counties. So the researchers set up a study [18] (PDF) in which they discussed the topic with some of these Republicans in person. They would cite the findings of the 9/11 Commission, as well as a statement in which George W. Bush himself denied his administration had “said the 9/11 attacks were orchestrated between Saddam and Al Qaeda.”

One study showed that not even Bush’s own words could change the minds of Bush voters who believed there was an Iraq-Al Qaeda link.

As it turned out, not even Bush’s own words could change the minds of these Bush voters—just 1 of the 49 partisans who originally believed the Iraq-Al Qaeda claim changed his or her mind. Far more common was resisting the correction in a variety of ways, either by coming up with counterarguments or by simply being unmovable:

Interviewer: [T]he September 11 Commission found no link between Saddam and 9/11, and this is what President Bush said. Do you have any comments on either of those?

Respondent: Well, I bet they say that the Commission didn’t have any proof of it but I guess we still can have our opinions and feel that way even though they say that.

The same types of responses are already being documented on divisive topics facing the current administration. Take the “Ground Zero mosque.” Using information from the political myth-busting site FactCheck.org [19], a team at Ohio State presented subjects[20] (PDF) with a detailed rebuttal to the claim that “Feisal Abdul Rauf, the Imam backing the proposed Islamic cultural center and mosque, is a terrorist-sympathizer.” Yet among those who were aware of the rumor and believed it, fewer than a third changed their minds.

A key question—and one that’s difficult to answer—is how “irrational” all this is. On the one hand, it doesn’t make sense to discard an entire belief system, built up over a lifetime, because of some new snippet of information. “It is quite possible to say, ‘I reached this pro-capital-punishment decision based on real information that I arrived at over my life,’” explains Stanford social psychologist Jon Krosnick [21]. Indeed, there’s a sense in which science denial could be considered keenly “rational.” In certain conservative communities, explains Yale’s Kahan, “People who say, ‘I think there’s something to climate change,’ that’s going to mark them out as a certain kind of person, and their life is going to go less well.”

This may help explain a curious pattern Nyhan and his colleagues found when they tried to test the fallacy [4] (PDF) that President Obama is a Muslim. When a nonwhite researcher was administering their study, research subjects were amenable to changing their minds about the president’s religion and updating incorrect views. But when only white researchers were present, GOP survey subjects in particular were more likely to believe the Obama Muslim myth than before. The subjects were using “social desirabililty” to tailor their beliefs (or stated beliefs, anyway) to whoever was listening.

Which leads us to the media. When people grow polarized over a body of evidence, or a resolvable matter of fact, the cause may be some form of biased reasoning, but they could also be receiving skewed information to begin with—or a complicated combination of both. In the Ground Zero mosque case, for instance, a follow-up study [22] (PDF) showed that survey respondents who watched Fox News were more likely to believe the Rauf rumor and three related ones—and they believed them more strongly than non-Fox watchers.

Okay, so people gravitate toward information that confirms what they believe, and they select sources that deliver it. Same as it ever was, right? Maybe, but the problem is arguably growing more acute, given the way we now consume information—through the Facebook links of friends, or tweets that lack nuance or context, or “narrowcast [23]” and often highly ideological media that have relatively small, like-minded audiences. Those basic human survival skills of ours, says Michigan’s Arthur Lupia, are “not well-adapted to our information age.”

A predictor of whether you accept the science of global warming? Whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat.

If you wanted to show how and why fact is ditched in favor of motivated reasoning, you could find no better test case than climate change. After all, it’s an issue where you have highly technical information on one hand and very strong beliefs on the other. And sure enough, one key predictor of whether you accept the science of global warming is whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat. The two groups have been growing more divided in their views about the topic, even as the science becomes more unequivocal.

So perhaps it should come as no surprise that more education doesn’t budge Republican views. On the contrary: In a 2008 Pew survey [24], for instance, only 19 percent of college-educated Republicans agreed that the planet is warming due to human actions, versus 31 percent of non-college educated Republicans. In other words, a higher education correlated with an increased likelihood of denying the science on the issue. Meanwhile, among Democrats and independents, more education correlated with greater acceptance of the science.

Other studies have shown a similar effect: Republicans who think they understand the global warming issue best are least concerned about it; and among Republicans and those with higher levels of distrust of science in general, learning more about the issue doesn’t increase one’s concern about it. What’s going on here? Well, according to Charles Taber and Milton Lodge of Stony Brook, one insidious aspect of motivated reasoning is that political sophisticates are prone to be more biased than those who know less about the issues. “People who have a dislike of some policy—for example, abortion—if they’re unsophisticated they can just reject it out of hand,” says Lodge. “But if they’re sophisticated, they can go one step further and start coming up with counterarguments.” These individuals are just as emotionally driven and biased as the rest of us, but they’re able to generate more and better reasons to explain why they’re right—and so their minds become harder to change.

That may be why the selectively quoted emails of Climategate were so quickly and easily seized upon by partisans as evidence of scandal. Cherry-picking is precisely the sort of behavior you would expect motivated reasoners to engage in to bolster their views—and whatever you may think about Climategate, the emails were a rich trove of new information upon which to impose one’s ideology.

Climategate had a substantial impact on public opinion, according to Anthony Leiserowitz [25], director of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication [26]. It contributed to an overall drop in public concern about climate change and a significant loss of trust in scientists. But—as we should expect by now—these declines were concentrated among particular groups of Americans: Republicans, conservatives, and those with “individualistic” values. Liberals and those with “egalitarian” values didn’t lose much trust in climate science or scientists at all. “In some ways, Climategate was like a Rorschach test,” Leiserowitz says, “with different groups interpreting ambiguous facts in very different ways.”

Is there a case study of science denial that largely occupies the political left? Yes: the claim that childhood vaccines are causing an epidemic of autism.

So is there a case study of science denial that largely occupies the political left? Yes: the claim that childhood vaccines are causing an epidemic of autism. Its most famous proponents are an environmentalist (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [27]) and numerous Hollywood celebrities (most notably Jenny McCarthy [28] and Jim Carrey). The Huffington Post gives a very large megaphone to denialists. AndSeth Mnookin [29], author of the new book The Panic Virus [30], notes that if you want to find vaccine deniers, all you need to do is go hang out at Whole Foods.

Vaccine denial has all the hallmarks of a belief system that’s not amenable to refutation. Over the past decade, the assertion that childhood vaccines are driving autism rates has been undermined [31] by multiple epidemiological studies—as well as the simple fact that autism rates continue to rise, even though the alleged offending agent in vaccines (a mercury-based preservative called thimerosal) has long since been removed.

Yet the true believers persist—critiquing each new study that challenges their views, and even rallying to the defense of vaccine-autism researcher Andrew Wakefield, after his 1998 Lancet paper [32]—which originated the current vaccine scare—was retracted and he subsequently lost his license [33] (PDF) to practice medicine. But then, why should we be surprised? Vaccine deniers created their own partisan media, such as the website Age of Autism, that instantly blast out critiques and counterarguments whenever any new development casts further doubt on anti-vaccine views.

It all raises the question: Do left and right differ in any meaningful way when it comes to biases in processing information, or are we all equally susceptible?

There are some clear differences. Science denial today is considerably more prominent on the political right—once you survey climate and related environmental issues, anti-evolutionism, attacks on reproductive health science by the Christian right, and stem-cell and biomedical matters. More tellingly, anti-vaccine positions are virtually nonexistent among Democratic officeholders today—whereas anti-climate-science views are becoming monolithic among Republican elected officials.

Some researchers have suggested that there are psychological differences between the left and the right that might impact responses to new information—that conservatives are more rigid and authoritarian, and liberals more tolerant of ambiguity. Psychologist John Jost of New York University has further argued that conservatives are “system justifiers”: They engage in motivated reasoning to defend the status quo.

This is a contested area, however, because as soon as one tries to psychoanalyze inherent political differences, a battery of counterarguments emerges: What about dogmatic and militant communists? What about how the parties have differed through history? After all, the most canonical case of ideologically driven science denial is probably the rejection of genetics in the Soviet Union, where researchers disagreeing with the anti-Mendelian scientist (and Stalin stooge) Trofim Lysenko were executed, and genetics itself was denounced as a “bourgeois” science and officially banned.

The upshot: All we can currently bank on is the fact that we all have blinders in some situations. The question then becomes: What can be done to counteract human nature itself?

We all have blinders in some situations. The question then becomes: What can be done to counteract human nature?

Given the power of our prior beliefs to skew how we respond to new information, one thing is becoming clear: If you want someone to accept new evidence, make sure to present it to them in a context that doesn’t trigger a defensive, emotional reaction.

This theory is gaining traction in part because of Kahan’s work at Yale. In one study [34], he and his colleagues packaged the basic science of climate change into fake newspaper articles bearing two very different headlines—”Scientific Panel Recommends Anti-Pollution Solution to Global Warming” and “Scientific Panel Recommends Nuclear Solution to Global Warming”—and then tested how citizens with different values responded. Sure enough, the latter framing made hierarchical individualists much more open to accepting the fact that humans are causing global warming. Kahan infers that the effect occurred because the science had been written into an alternative narrative that appealed to their pro-industry worldview.

You can follow the logic to its conclusion: Conservatives are more likely to embrace climate science if it comes to them via a business or religious leader, who can set the issue in the context of different values than those from which environmentalists or scientists often argue. Doing so is, effectively, to signal a détente in what Kahan has called a “culture war of fact.” In other words, paradoxically, you don’t lead with the facts in order to convince. You lead with the values—so as to give the facts a fighting chance.

Source URL: http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/03/denial-science-chris-mooney

Links:
[1] https://motherjones.com/files/lfestinger.pdf
[2] http://www.powells.com/biblio/61-9781617202803-1
[3] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2270237
[4] http://www-personal.umich.edu/~bnyhan/obama-muslim.pdf
[5] https://motherjones.com/files/descartes.pdf
[6] http://www-personal.umich.edu/~lupia/
[7] http://www.stonybrook.edu/polsci/ctaber/
[8] http://people.virginia.edu/~jdh6n/
[9] https://motherjones.com/files/emotional_dog_and_rational_tail.pdf
[10] http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/lord_ross_lepper79_JPSP_biased-assimilation-and-attitude-polarization.pdf
[11] http://psp.sagepub.com/content/23/6/636.abstract
[12] http://www.law.yale.edu/faculty/DKahan.htm
[13] https://motherjones.com/files/kahan_paper_cultural_cognition_of_scientific_consesus.pdf
[14] http://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1095&context=fss_papers
[15] http://seagrant.oregonstate.edu/blogs/communicatingclimate/transcripts/Episode_10b_Dan_Kahan.html
[16] http://www-personal.umich.edu/~bnyhan/nyhan-reifler.pdf
[17] http://www.sociology.northwestern.edu/faculty/prasad/home.html
[18] http://sociology.buffalo.edu/documents/hoffmansocinquiryarticle_000.pdf
[19] http://www.factcheck.org/
[20] http://www.comm.ohio-state.edu/kgarrett/FactcheckMosqueRumors.pdf
[21] http://communication.stanford.edu/faculty/krosnick/
[22] http://www.comm.ohio-state.edu/kgarrett/MediaMosqueRumors.pdf
[23] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narrowcasting
[24] http://people-press.org/report/417/a-deeper-partisan-divide-over-global-warming
[25] http://environment.yale.edu/profile/leiserowitz/
[26] http://environment.yale.edu/climate/
[27] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-f-kennedy-jr-and-david-kirby/vaccine-court-autism-deba_b_169673.html
[28] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jenny-mccarthy/vaccine-autism-debate_b_806857.html
[29] http://sethmnookin.com/
[30] http://www.powells.com/biblio/1-9781439158647-0
[31] http://discovermagazine.com/2009/jun/06-why-does-vaccine-autism-controversy-live-on/article_print
[32] http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140673697110960/fulltext
[33] http://www.gmc-uk.org/Wakefield_SPM_and_SANCTION.pdf_32595267.pdf
[34] http://www.scribd.com/doc/3446682/The-Second-National-Risk-and-Culture-Study-Making-Sense-of-and-Making-Progress-In-The-American-Culture-War-of-Fact

Apr 19, 2011
Amortality: Why It's No Longer Necessary to Act Your Age

Monday, Apr. 25, 2011 By Catherine Mayer

If one place on earth has vanquished nature and stopped the clocks, it is Las Vegas. Built on land without water or any reliable resource apart from the blazing sun, the resort entombs visitors in the permanent, cool, jangling dusk of hotel casinos. Its skyscape positions ancient Egypt near Renaissance Venice and fin de siècle Paris. I had come to this confected city to find out if the Cenegenics Medical Institute, “the world’s largest age-management practice,” could subvert the laws of human biology with similar ease. First I had to locate Cenegenics, and though you might think it would be easy to spot a building described by its tenants as “quite a lot like the White House,” the cab driver took more than a few passes before we were able to pick out the right White House from the rows of White Houses that have sprouted in the Nevada desert.

That’s the Vegas paradox: despite the mind-boggling range of architectural styles and eras represented, there’s a remarkable uniformity to it all. The residents are similarly homogeneous. Perma-tanned and toned, many of them sport a uniface common to both genders and across the income range, from bellhops to casino owners. The uniface is defined by absences: its eyebrows have been plucked, threaded or waxed into submission; its fine little nose is free from bumps and bulges. Above all, it looks neither young nor old. It is ageless. It is amortal. (See portraits of centenarians.)

Amortality — the term I coined for the burgeoning trend of living agelessly — is a product of the world many of us now inhabit, a sprawl of virtual Las Vegases, devoid of history and shorn of landmarks that might provide guidelines for what is expected of us as the years pass. Youth used to be our last hurrah before the onset of maturity and eventual dotage, each milestone — childhood, adolescence, young adulthood, middle age, retirement, golden years, decline — benchmarked against a series of culturally determined ideals. But as our life spans have lengthened — across the developed world, we are now living 30 years longer than we were at the beginning of the 20th century — the ages of man have started to elide. If you doubt that statement, think how hard it is to answer the following questions: What’s the best age to have children? Or to settle down with a life partner? Or to retire? When might a woman consider herself middle-aged — at 40, 50, 60? Does that differ for a man?

The meaning of age has become elusive, visual clues untrustworthy. Children dress like louche adults. Their parents slouch around in hoodies and sneakers. Rising phalanxes of Dorian Grays rely on exercise, diet and cosmetic procedures to remain transcendentally youthful, while glowing teens and 20-somethings are propelled by some of those same procedures into a semblance of premature aging.

The rules of age-appropriate behavior that used to be reliably drummed into us by parents and teachers, church and state, no longer hold sway. But we haven’t lost faith; we’ve just transferred it, to scientists and celebrities. Hollywood is the home of amortality, the music industry its outreach program. “I think you should just keep going while you can, doing what you like,” Mick Jagger observed at 66, ignoring his pronouncement in May 1975 that he’d rather be dead than be singing “Satisfaction” at — or presumably long after — 45. (See how to live 100 years.)

Doing what you like might include adopting children at 49 and 50, like Madonna; becoming a first-time dad at 62, like Elton John; preparing to marry a woman 60 years younger than yourself, like Hugh Hefner; or, like Jagger himself, reversing the traditional order of marriage and bachelorhood. These are amortal choices. But amortality is not invariably synonymous with extended youth. Meryl Streep represents a different expression of amortality, a true agelessness. And Woody Allen exhibits one of the classic symptoms of amortality, constructing a personal and professional life full of distractions. He never rests. He has turned out at least one film a year for all but three of the last 40 years and performs regularly with a jazz band. As he told an interviewer, “When you’re worried about this joke, and this costume, and this wig, and that location and the dailies, you’re not worried about death and the brevity of life.”

The defining characteristic of amortals is that they live the same way, at the same pitch, doing and consuming much the same things, from their late teens right up until death. They rarely ask themselves if their behavior is age-appropriate, because that concept has little meaning for them. They don’t structure their lives around the inevitability of death, because they prefer to ignore it. Instead, they continue to chase aspirations and covet new goods and services. Amortals assume all options are always open. They postpone retirement by choice, not just necessity; one of the reasons the American Association of Retired Persons changed its name to AARP was that many in its demographic were, in fact, still working. And they’re having children later than ever — and often relying on fertility treatments to do so.

Study: Genes May Predict Who Lives to 100.

See how to prevent illness at any age.

A by-product of prosperity, amortality influences behaviors across the socio-economic spectrum and from youth to old age. But as amortals get older without “getting old,” they become more conspicuous. Upturning conventions of aging isn’t necessarily a bad thing, given the maturing profile of the world’s population. By 2050, more than a fifth of humanity will be 60 or older, and in the U.S., the 60-pluses will make up 27% of the population. The amortal impulse to stay active, if properly directed, could help ease the anticipated labor shortage and curb swelling health care costs, but amortality is not without its risks. Amortals have a dangerous habit of trusting that science will be able to deliver them from the consequences of aging or, at a minimum, allow them to select the timing and manner of their passing if the range of products and programs promising to preserve us should fail.

Gains in longevity have been achieved by eliminating or neutralizing many threats to our lives, but the main threat — aging — has proved more resistant to intervention. In 1961 a microbiologist called Leonard Hayflick made a depressing discovery. He found that most human cells are able to divide only a limited number of times, so that even if we get through life without contracting a single disease, we’ll die when enough of our cells cease dividing. Although our life expectancy continues to increase, by two to five years per decade in the developed world, the Hayflick limit would appear to doom us to a maximum of around 120 years. (A global look at longevity.)

But that doesn’t stop amortals from aspiring to spend as long in their bodies as possible. There’s a thriving specialist health care sector promising to help us do so, and Las Vegas is one of its hubs.

Life, but Not as We Know It

eighty percent of cenegenics patients are men who go there in search of Life. That’s Dr. Jeffry Life (his real name), the star of a press campaign in which the physician wears snug shorts and a vest with scooped armholes, a style popular in New York City’s Greenwich Village. His face is avuncular. His body is that of Mr. Universe in his prime. One advertisement for the clinic reads, “70 Years Old and Still Going Strong. Happy Birthday, Dr. Life!” I don’t encounter Dr. Life in the flesh until the end of my visit, and there’s little flesh on display as he goes about his doctoring in a suit, but you can see the muscles straining at the material.

Cenegenics describes its program as a “unique and balanced combination of nutrition, exercise and hormone optimization,” which sounds good for just about anyone, so I submit myself as a guinea pig. My day at the clinic involves detailed blood work, scans and tests and would usually cost $3,400. (I accepted a free consultation.) At 49, my physical condition turns out to be good but not “optimal,” the Cenegenics buzzword. My consultant, Dr. Jeffrey Leake, another paragon of muscularity, tells me that the transition to “optimal” would entail a fierce program of exercise and losing 10 to 15 lb. (5 to 7 kg). Although my body mass index was logged at 19, toward the lower end of the normal range, one of the scans detected visceral fat, invisible from the outside but a hazard for heart disease, diabetes, hypertension and bad cholesterol. (Watch “Growth Hormones Growing on Weight Lifters.”)

Leake also proposes starting me on two steroid hormones — DHEA and testosterone — in pill and cream form, respectively. “We will monitor for possible side effects of androgen therapy, which are acne, oiliness of skin or deepening of the voice,” he e-mails later. The sex hormone estradiol, like testosterone, could improve my bone density, he adds. “And if applicable — only after a comprehensive evaluation reveals an adult-onset growth-hormone deficiency (GHD) — we may consider supplementing with a third, growth hormone.”

Underpinning these recommendations is the notion that hormone supplementation can return us to our “natural” state of youthful vibrancy, as if aging itself were against nature. It’s an enticing sales pitch that helps persuade patients to sign up for further consultations and supplies of supplements that typically add up to around $1,000 per month.

Clients often arrive on Cenegenics’ doorstep in bad shape; commitment to the program — not least to paying for it — helps impose a discipline that they may have lacked. Weaned off junk food and coaxed into the gym, converts are likely to show clear benefits. But there is another reason Cenegenics patients often achieve such dramatic results, and it’s the same reason tiny East Germany carried off so many Olympic gold medals. Testosterone and other steroids routinely prescribed to Cenegenics patients promote muscle mass. But taking testosterone can also cause depressed sperm production, elevated bad cholesterol, shrunken testicles, water retention and bad skin. (I declined Dr. Leake’s prescription.)

Is There a Longevity Personality?

Read TIME’s cover story about testosterone.

As to growth-hormone supplementation, the jury is still out. A 1990 study of its effects on a group of men ages 61 and above, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, was broadly favorable. Subjects showed marked increases in lean body mass and no apparent side effects. But it was a small study, of short duration, as its author, Dr. Daniel Rudman, pointed out. His decorous note of scientific caution was destined to be ignored, and the study is now routinely cited in sales pitches for growth-hormone supplements.

In 2003, the New England Journal of Medicine returned to the subject. This time, the conclusions weren’t quite so encouraging. Growth hormone changes body composition but doesn’t appear to improve function. And there are niggling concerns that growth hormone could accelerate the growth of cancer: a correlation between the development of prostate cancer and higher growth-hormone concentrations “does not demonstrate causality by growth hormone,” the article noted, “but it does raise concern about giving older men growth hormone.” The alternative? “Going to the gym is beneficial and certainly cheaper.” (See pictures of the world’s most celebrated senior citizens.)

Biology Is Destiny
There is only one documented way to lengthen life — caloric restriction — and that hasn’t been conclusively proven to work for humans, just for smaller organisms. No wonder there was so much excitement around a compound called resveratrol, which seems to mimic the effects of such a diet without the need for a punitive regimen. David Sinclair, an alumnus of MIT, now at Harvard University, spearheaded research on resveratrol, which is found in red grapes and activates sirtuins, enzymes involved in regulating metabolism. In 2008, Sinclair sold his company, Sirtris Pharmaceuticals, to GlaxoSmithKline for $720 million. But last year, a second-stage clinical trial of one Sirtris resveratrol drug was halted amid safety fears after causing kidney damage in cancer patients. Two other compounds remain in development.

One problem with potential elixirs of youth is the danger that they may indeed stop aging — by killing the patient. Research into an enzyme called telomerase that appears to “immortalize” cells by lengthening the telomeres — the repetitive sequences of DNA at the end of each chromosome, which shorten when cells divide — has shown promising results. A study published in Nature last November indicated that mice with suppressed telomerase production aged swiftly but could be rejuvenated if the telomerase supply was restored. But high-strength compounds “are believed to be too toxic for human use. We need to do a lot of medicinal chemistry before we can get them to preclinical trials,” e-mails Jon Cornell of Sierra Sciences, a Nevada-based biotech company focused on telomere research. In the meantime, both resveratrol and telomerase are available in weaker formulation as dietary supplements. TA-65, a nutraceutical that “can improve not only cell longevity but quality of life,” according to its manufacturer’s website, “does have a telomerase-activating effect,” Cornell tells me. “But TA-65 is very weak compared to some of the other chemicals we’ve discussed.” Why does Bill Andrews, Sierra Sciences’ founder and an eminent geneticist and molecular biologist, endorse TA-65? “It’s better than nothing,” Cornell replies.

As Young as They Feel
A friend spots a bumper sticker on sale in Australia: I refuse to get old. Such slogans used to be ironic in intent. Amortals adopt them as mission statements, and the amortal form of positive thinking — refusing to contemplate age and death — can bring positive results, up to a point. “Strictly speaking, longevity is measured in numbers: it is the arithmetical accumulation of days, weeks, months and years that produces our chronological life,” wrote the psychiatrist and gerontologist Robert Butler in his last book, The Longevity Prescription. “Yet aging — or, more accurately, its converse, staying young — is in no small measure a state of mind that defies measurement.” (See “Recipe for Longevity: No Smoking, Lots of Friends.”)

That isn’t a platitude, as Harvard psychology professor Ellen Langer set out to prove back in 1979. Her experiment, designed to see to what extent people think themselves younger or older, started with the retrofit of an isolated hotel in New England. The fixtures and fittings were exchanged for 1959 period equivalents; the refrigerator was stocked with foodstuffs available 20 years earlier. Then came the guests: men in their 70s and 80s, instructed not to view this as an exercise in nostalgia but to pretend they had traveled back two decades in time.

This pretense proved decisive. A control group, taken from the same demographic, arrived to stay in the hotel after the first contingent had left. Their experience differed only in one key respect: they were allowed to acknowledge that this was an experiment and to reminisce about the world the retrofit evoked. In just a week, both groups chalked up physical and cognitive improvements. But the changes were much more pronounced among the time travelers.

Study: Optimistic Women Live Longer.

See the top 10 medical breakthroughs of 2010.

It’s a result that goes some way toward explaining the extraordinary sense of well-being that radiates from the residents of Sun City Shadow Hills, a community for “active adults aged 55 and better” in California’s Coachella Valley, where retirement has been successfully reimagined not as a cessation of work but as a long whirl of absorbing activity.

A construction magnate named Del Webb opened the first Sun City community in Arizona in 1960. “An old fellow came up to me once with tears in his eyes and thanked me for building Sun City,” recounted Webb, interviewed for a 1962 TIME cover story. “He said he was planning to spend the happiest 40 years of his life there.” Webb died in 1974, but his creation lives on. There are now more than 50 Sun Cities dotted across America. Sun City Shadow Hills, launched in 2004, is among the newest. Driving along its flawless red macadam streets in yellow sunshine beneath unrealistically blue skies, you start to wonder if you’ve strayed onto a back lot at a Hollywood studio. Distant figures shimmer in the heat haze on the fairway, and a golf buggy hums along a perimeter road, but the sidewalks are empty. Then you ring the doorbell at Patti and Phil Wolff’s house and discover a fair chunk of Sun City’s boisterous population ensconced in their large open-plan kitchen. At the back of the house, there’s a lush garden their next-door neighbor describes as “bitchin’,” and a barbecue sends aromatic smoke signals to the rest of the community that one of Patti’s famous meals will shortly be served. Patti, 63, describes one of her most ambitious catering challenges: a 2010 dinner-dance that drew 81 guests, organized by the Rainbow Club, the community’s gay and lesbian social club. “When they told me what it was going to cost per person just for the food, I said, ‘Oh, come on, I can do that for half. And give you choices,’” she says. (Watch TIME’s video “A Faster Stride Predicts a Longer Life.”)

Her husband Phil, also 63, is a different kind of dynamo. Connected to the mains, he could power his whole street and its air-conditioned residences and 24-hour sprinkler systems. He plays softball, is a regular at the state-of-the-art gym at Sun City’s 35,000-sq.-ft. (3,250 sq m) Montecito Clubhouse and indulges a passion for cycling, racking up as many as 175 miles (280 km) per week. “Basically, he does so many things that I hardly see him,” says Patti. “It’s like if he was back at work again.”

The couple’s action-packed lifestyle comes thanks to their erstwhile employer, telecom company Pacific Bell, which featherbedded them into early retirement. Several of the friends around their table still work. Larry Johnson, 63, once the manager of a funeral home in Oregon, these days offers a similar service for pets, assisted by his partner Bruce Atkinson, 66. “Hundreds of people [in the area] have old dogs and cats, and eventually those dogs and cats will die, so Larry gets a lot of business,” says Atkinson.

The same forces that keep Johnson’s business ticking will eventually disrupt the idyll that he and his friends have built. For the moment, their community offers the ideal support network for widows and widowers, but as their numbers inevitably swell, the network will contract. On a recent night out at another Sun City development called Palm Desert, Johnson and Atkinson caught an uncomfortable glimpse of the future. “We were standing there, and we both made the comment, ‘God, these are really old people,’” says Atkinson. Palm Desert opened 12 years before Shadow Hills; the average age of its residents is higher. And because ownership of Sun City properties is restricted to the 55-pluses, the communities age and risk dying off together. Yet it is the absence of young people that — for a while, at least — revitalizes Sun City residents, permitting a powerful illusion of agelessness. Shielded like Langer’s test subjects from reminders of their chronological age, they become amortal. (See “Home Instead: The Business of Granny Care.”)

Keeping On Keeping On
It’s a startling statistic: the fastest-growing segment of the world population is the very old, with the number of centenarians projected to reach nearly 6 million by 2050. But as John F. Kennedy observed in a 1963 address to Congress, “it is not enough for a great nation merely to have added new years to life. Our objective must be to add new life to those years.” Life spans have lengthened; health spans have not kept pace. Genes and luck play a role in how we age. Lifestyle and the wealth required to enhance it are also key factors. Science may yet devise an elixir that allows us all to be Mick Jaggers, doing what we like, seemingly indefinitely and without penalty. But the swelling ranks of amortals who already assume it’s possible to keep on living agelessly may find themselves instead subsumed into another phenomenon of our times: the living death before death, sometimes lasting decades, that increased longevity without extended vitality represents.

Yet the trend of amortality is accelerating: you can’t just close your eyes and wish us back in Kansas among kindly folk who obligingly conform to outdated expectations of age. Look around our virtual Vegases and you’ll see cause for optimism too. Amortals, as they advance in years, hold the key to transforming perceptions by showing what older people can do and showing older people what they can be. They’re inclined to keep working, rather than vegetating. They may not age gracefully, but nor do they trade their sense of adventure for dignity. Thanks to amortality, our graying world may not prove too gray a place.

Adapted from Amortality: The Pleasures and Perils of Living Agelessly by Catherine Mayer, © 2011. Published in the U.K. by Vermilion

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Apr 19, 20111 note
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Apr 19, 201117 notes

INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURE Debunking the stubborn myth that only industrial ag can ‘feed the world’174

BY TOM PHILPOTT

10 MAR 2011 7:00 AM

     

    Hold the agrichemicals: Organic ag could keep markets brimming with food.

    I’ve written about it once already, but I want to return to The Economist’s recent special seriesabout how industrial agriculture is the true and only way to feed the 9 billion people who will inhabit the world by 2050. The framing, I think, is extremely interesting.

    The widely revered magazine identifies two strains of thought on the food system’s future: one serious and one frivolous.

    The serious one — made up of “food companies, plant breeders, and international development agencies” — is “concerned mainly with feeding the world’s growing population,” which it plans to do “through the spread of modern farming, plant research and food processing in poor countries.”

    The frivolous one — “influential among non-governmental organizations and some consumers” — “concentrates more on the food problems of richer countries, such as concerns about animal welfare and obesity,” The Economist writes. This group fixates on the question of “what should we have for dinner,” but has little to say about feeding the globe’s growing population. And since The Economist’s special report “concentrates on the problems of feeding the 9 billion,” not the trivial omnivorous dilemmas of wealthy Berkeleyites, the magazine throws its lot in with the companies, plant breeders, and international development agencies — the Serious People Looking for Real Solutions for Feeding the World.

    I’m focusing on this Economist spread because I think it beautifully exemplifies (and reinforces) the conventional wisdom on the future of food.

    President Obama displayed his fealty to it by placing an agrichemical-industry lobbyist in charge of agricultural trade negotiations and by tapping a Monsanto-funded scientist to lead the USDA’s research program.

    USDA chief Tom Vilsack expresses it when he natters on about ramming open foreign markets to our surplus farm products. 

    Nina Fedoroff, until recently the State Department’s chief science advisor, promotes it every chance she gets. She has moved on from shaping U.S. foreign policy on ag science to another influential position: president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

    The globe’s best-endowed grantmaker, the Gates Foundation, endorses it every time it cuts a deal with agribusiness giants like Monsanto and BASF.

    The problem is, the conventional wisdom is wrong — or, at the very least, much more contested than its champions let on. The Economist insisted that international development agencies had embraced Big Ag as the solution to the globe’s food problem, but that simply isn’t true.

    Indeed, for years now, a steady stream of reports has emerged from the development agencies calling for new directions. In 2008, the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development and the U.N. Environment Program issued a paper [PDF] called “Organic Agriculture and Food Security in Africa.” It reads like a direct refutation of The Economist’s claims. The report concludes:

    Organic agriculture can increase agricultural productivity and can raise incomes with low-cost, locally available and appropriate technologies, without causing environmental damage. Furthermore, evidence shows that organic agriculture can build up natural resources, strengthen communities and improve human capacity, thus improving food security by addressing many different causal factors simultaneously … Organic and near-organic agricultural methods and technologies are ideally suited for many poor, marginalized smallholder farmers in Africa, as they require minimal or no external inputs, use locally and naturally available materials to produce high-quality products, and encourage a whole systemic approach to farming that is more diverse and resistant to stress.

    That same year, the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) issued a report [PDF] that echoed those conclusions. Entitled “Mitigating Climate Change, Providing Food Security and Self-Reliance for Rural Livelihoods,” the report points to the Tigray area of Ethiopia, “previously known as one of the most degraded Regions of Ethiopia.” There, more than 20,000 farming families saw yields of major cereals and pulses nearly double “using ecological agricultural practices such as composting, water and soil conservation activities, agroforestry, and crop diversification” — even as “the use of chemical fertilizers … steadily decreased.” The phaseout of synthetic and mined fertilizers was key, because “most poor farmers, particularly in degraded lands and in market-marginalized areas, are not able to afford external inputs,” the report states.

    Perhaps even more crucially, the FAO researchers found that “ecological agriculture” could “assist farmers in adapting to climate change” by making farm fields more resilient to stress. So why isn’t eco-agriculture catching on? The report cites a bevy of obstacles, none of them technological:

    [L]ack of policy support at local, national, regional and international levels, resource and capacity constraints, and a lack of awareness and inadequate information, training and research on ecological agriculture at all levels.

    At a conference in 2009, the FAO once again bluntly contradicted the conventional wisdom. “In the name of intensification in many places around the world, farmers over-ploughed, over-fertilized, over-irrigated, over-applied pesticides,” Shivaji Pandey, director of FAO’s Plant Production and Protection Division, declared. “But in so doing we also affected all aspects of the soil, water, land, biodiversity and the services provided by an intact ecosystem. That began to bring yield growth rates down.”

    In place of industrial methods, Pandey called for “conservation agriculture,” which he described as a “farming system that does not use regular ploughing and tillage but promotes permanent soil cover and diversified crop rotation to ensure optimal soil health and productivity.”

    Then there’s the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD). Under the auspices of the United Nations, World Bank, World Health Organization, and other institutions, the IAASTD gathered 400 scientists and development experts from dozens of nations to assess the very problems examined by The Economist. A three-year project, it has been called the IPCC of agriculture.

    Its conclusion [PDF]: agroecological practices — including the very organic-farming techniques scorned by The Economist — are at least as important as agrichemicals and biotechnology in terms of “feeding the world” in the decades to come. As for the alleged panacea of genetically modified seeds, the IAASTD was so unenthusiastic about GMOs that Croplife International, the trade group for the globe’s dominant GMO/agrichemical purveyors, angrily pulled out [PDF] of participation shortly before its release — as, disgracefully, did the U.S. and Canadian governments in solidarity.

    Just last week, the U.N. Environment Program yet again came out against Big Ag, this time as part of its broad Green Economy initiative. The agency released an advance copy of a report called “Agriculture: Investing in Natural Capital.” It amounts to a blistering assault on the agribusiness-as-usual model. It briskly names the main problems with the goal of spreading U.S.-style industrial agriculture to the global south:

    Conventional/industrial agriculture is energy- and input-intensive. Its high productivity relies on the extensive use of petrochemical fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides, fuel, water, and continuous new investment (e.g. in advanced seed varieties and machinery).

    In place of the industrial model, the report calls for what it terms “green agriculture,” characterized by low-tech, high-skilled methods like “restoring and enhancing soil fertility through the increased use of naturally and sustainably produced nutrient inputs; diversified crop rotations; and livestock and crop integration.” In other words, the basic tenets of organic agriculture, which were developed by an English plant pathologist drawing on the methods of Indian peasant farmers in the first half of the 20th century.

    Such agriculture can indeed “feed the 9 billion,” to use The Economist’s phrase. The report concludes that “use of green agricultural practices and technologies” can boost global per capita calorie availability from today’s 2,800 to around 3,200 calories by 2050. And it can do so in a way that doesn’t drive millions of smallholder farmers off the land and into cities ill-equipped to absorb them, like the so-called Green Revolution transition to industrial farming in the ‘60s and ‘70s did in South Asia. “Green agriculture has the potential to be a net creator of jobs that provides higher return on labour inputs than conventional agriculture,” the report states.

    Transitioning to green agriculture will take serious investment, the report acknowledges: $198 billion per year from 2011 to 2050. But the original Green Revolution required massive investments, too — as do present-day schemes that involve “feeding the world” with patented biotech seeds, large, energy-sucking machines, and chemical fertilizers. And investing in green ag offers high returns:

    Studies suggest that “Return on investments (ROI) in agricultural knowledge, science and technology across commodities, countries and regions on average are high (40-50 per cent) and have not declined over time. … In terms of social gains, the Asian Development Bank Institute concluded that investment needed to move a household out of poverty through engaging farmers in organic agriculture could be only US$32 to US$38 per capita

    This latest report confirms that there is indeed a consensus forming in development-policy circles on the feed-the-world question, but it’s the opposite of what The Economist presented. Green ag, not Big Ag, points the way forward.

    The question becomes, why are so many influential commentators behind the curve? How can The Economist so confidently pretend away the emerging consensus? (I can’t resist noting that in theacknowledgments to its special food series, the magazine named as sources Monsanto, Syngenta, the Monsanto-funded Donald Danforth Plant Science Center, and Kraft Foods, along with the World Bank and the FAO.) Why did Obama staff his ag-policy positions with people who act like they’ve never heard anything but Big Ag propaganda? When is the Gates Foundation going to move its considerable resources behind green ag? How can a smart writer like The Washington Post’s ace political blogger Ezra Klein casually declare, as he did last year, that “Industrial farms are the future,” citing nothing more than a half-baked newspaper report? By all means, disagree with the consensus if you find it flawed; but acknowledge it, wrestle with the literature, refute it (if you can).

    Perhaps the tide will turn with the ascension of veteran food writer Mark Bittman to The New York Times op-ed page — still probably the nation’s most influential opinion forum. In his latest column, published today, Bittman teases out the implications of the new U.N. report. Are you listening, President Obama? Mr. Gates?

    Tom Philpott is Grist’s senior food and agriculture writer. You can follow his Twitter feed attwitter.com/tomphilpott.

    Apr 17, 2011

    Science Centric | News

    Sequences capture the code of the common cold
    Science Centric
    12 February 2009 19:00 GMT

    In an effort to confront our most familiar malady, scientists have deciphered the instruction manual for the common cold. Writing this week (12 February) in the journal Science, a multi-institutional team of researchers reports the sequences for all of the 99 known strains of cold virus, nature’s most ubiquitous human pathogen. The feat exposes, in precise detail, all of the molecular features of the many variations of the virus responsible for the common cold, the inescapable ailment that makes us all sneeze, cough and sniffle with regularity.

    Conducted by teams at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the J. Craig Venter Institute, the work to sequence and analyse the cold virus genomes lays a foundation for understanding the virus, its evolution and three-dimensional structure and, most importantly, for exposing vulnerabilities that could lead to the first effective cold remedies.

    ‘We’ve had bits and pieces of these things for a long time,’ says Ann Palmenberg, of UW-Madison’s Institute for Molecular Virology and the lead author of the new study. ‘Now, we have the full genome sequences and we can put them into evolutionary perspective.’

    As its name implies, the common cold is an inescapable, highly contagious pathogen. Humans are constantly exposed to cold viruses, and each year adults may endure two to four infections, while schoolchildren can catch as many as 10 colds.

    ‘We know a lot about the common cold virus,’ Palmenberg explains, ‘but we didn’t know how their genomes encoded all that information. Now we do, and all kinds of new things are falling out.’

    The genetic sequence of an organism is, in essence, a blueprint that carries all the necessary information for life. It reveals at the most basic level how an organism is constructed and can help scientists look back in time, assemble a family tree and see how a plant, animal or microbe came to be. With pathogens such as viruses, it can also be used to help predict the potential virulence of new emerging agents of disease.

    A sequenced genome can also show an organism’s vulnerabilities. In the case of the cold virus, for example, the sequenced genomes are showing which receptors on cells the viruses bind to, information that can be used to design drugs that could potentially help prevent or mediate infection as viruses require access to host cells to do their dirty work and make new viruses.

    ‘This gives us the molecular basis for drug activity,’ says Palmenberg. ‘We can predict which drugs can take them out.’

    Stephen B. Liggett, the new study’s senior author and a professor of medicine and physiology at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, notes that the relative paucity of information about the genetic composition of the many strains of cold virus has slowed the development of effective drugs to prevent infection, medicine that can be critically important for some populations.

    ‘We generally think of colds as a nuisance, but they can be debilitating in the very young and in older individuals, and can trigger asthma attacks at any age,’ says Liggett, a pulmonologist and molecular geneticist. The new sequences, he says, may help science understand the aetiology of asthma as recent studies suggest rhinovirus infection in children can reprogram the immune system to develop asthma by adolescence.

    The newly sequenced viruses also show, says Palmenberg, why it is unlikely we will ever have an effective, all-purpose cold vaccine: The existing reservoir of viruses worldwide is huge and, according to the new study, they have a tendency to swap genetic sequences when cells are infected by more than one virus, a phenomenon that can lead to new virus strains and clinical manifestations.

    ‘Having sequenced the complete genomes of these things we now know you can be infected by more than one virus at a time and that they can recombine (their genes),’ Palmenberg explains. ‘That’s why we’ll never have a vaccine for the common cold. Nature is very efficient at putting different kinds of paint on the viruses.’

    The ability of different cold virus strains to swap genes and make entirely new strains was thought to be impossible, notes Claire M. Fraser-Liggett, a co-author of the new study and director of the Institute for Genome Sciences and professor of medicine and microbiology at the University of Maryland School of Medicine. ‘There is the possibility that this could lead to the emergence of a new rhinovirus strain with fairly dramatic properties,’ says Fraser-Liggett.

    However, with cold virus sequences in hand, as well as some idea of how they exchange genetic information, it may be possible to predict the pathogenic potential of a virus and devise antiviral agents to thwart infection.

    The sequenced cold viruses, which were collected from human noses worldwide, fall primarily into two broad species categories or serotypes of human rhinovirus, types A and B. The new work is timely as it presents a framework for understanding yet another newly described species of rhinovirus known as C, whose strains are less common, but far more virulent, capable of infecting cells deep in the lungs.

    The new study was funded by the University of Maryland School of Medicine and the National Institutes of Health.

    Story from Science Centric | News
    http://www.sciencecentric.com/news/09021260-sequences-capture-the-code-the-common-cold.html


    A multi-institutional team of researchers has deciphered the complete genetic sequences of all of the world’s 99 known strains of human rhinovirus, the viruses responsible for the common cold. The sequences provide a detailed blueprint for the virus, showing how new strains develop and revealing pressure points that may lead to new antiviral drugs. Here, a rhinovirus particle at atomic resolution is superimposed over a representation of the RNA molecule that encodes the virus genome. (c) Ann Palmenberg, UW-Madison

    Apr 17, 2011

    A Global Strategy for Labor
    Jeff Faux 
    March 4, 2002
    Opinion pieces and speeches by EPI staff and associates.

    THIS SPEECH WAS GIVEN AT THE 2002 WORLD SOCIAL FORUM IN PORTO ALEGRE, BRAZIL HELD ON JANUARY 30 - FEBRUARY 4, 2002.

    A Global Strategy for Labor
    By Jeff Faux

    The overwhelming majority of people in this world must work in order to live. The definition of Labor in the global marketplace includes those who are unionized and those who are not. It includes those who work in cities and those who work on farms. It includes those both in the formal and informal sectors. It includes those who work at home and small business people who live by exploiting their own labor. It follows that full employment, adequate wages, and a healthy environment ought to be the common sense goals of global economy.

    But the global marketplace, like all markets, is built on a set of rules. Indeed, according to a former director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the rules of the WTO represents the “constitution” of the new global economy. The current rules of the global market — those of the WTO, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and other global regulators — were not established to promote the dignity and well-being of Labor. They were established to protect the interest of those who invest for a living, at the expense of those who must work.

    Investor Protectionism
    The investor protectionist policies imposed by those who set the rules for the world’s commerce include trade de-regulation, privatization, weakening of collective bargaining and financial liberalization. Not surprisingly, they - and therefore their clients in the media and the academic world - also measure the progress of globalization according to the interests of the investor class, such as rising stock markets, increasing volume of trade, lower taxes for the rich, and the elimination of any restrictions on investment. The rationale for such a narrow perspective is that these policies will automatically create faster growth, greater equality and expand democracy.

    After more than 20 years of intense investor protectionism policies, these promises remain unfulfilled. Over the past two decades of neo-liberalism, global economic growth has actually slowed. Those countries that grew the fastest were the most resistant to the advice of the bankers, the economists, and the consultants who control credit, aid and set the trading rules according to the “Washington Consensus.”

    In the past 20 years, equality has actually gotten worse. As Christian Weller, Robert Scott, and Adam Hersh have shown1 the median income of the richest ten countries was 77 times that of the poorest ten countries in 1980, and 149 times in 1999. The incomes of the richest 10% of the world’s people were 70 times that of the poorest 10% in 1980, and 122 times in 1999. Within nations, inequality also seems to have worsened. Accurate global data is not available, but in the countries where the data are most reliable, the trend is clearly toward more inequality2.

    Neither has the claim about democracy been fulfilled. As one scholarly article in a neo-liberal publication recently reported: the evidence does not support “a strong and direct connection between globalization and democratization. The evidence is mixed and will continue to be so for some time. For every society in which a ‘people’s power’ revolution is helped along by international cheering squads and satellite television, another is daily becoming more cosmopolitan while adhering to traditional (and often authoritarian) practices.”

    Even World Bank president James Wolfensohn in 1999 was moved to admit, “At the level of people, the system isn’t working.”3

    By “people,” Wolfensohn meant working people. Clearly the system is working for some people. It is shifting the benefits of new technologies and the efficiencies from the natural expansion of trade and communication to the world’s investors and shifting the costs to the world’s workers.

    No one can deny the existence of a global investor class. Electronic technologies and modern transportation and communications systems allow for extremely effective business and financial networking. Increasingly, multinational businesses are managed by multinational personnel, who have little or no loyalty to the country whose passport they happen to hold.

    A global investor class implies a global working class, even though the international organization of workers is far behind that of investors. Therefore we cannot fully judge the impact of globalization without reference to the share of benefits and costs going to capital and labor. The question of who wins and who loses from particular policies - such as the WTO round or NAFTA or the proposal for a Free Trade Agreement for the Americas — cannot be answered on the basis of separate national economies alone because every country has an investor and a working class, i.e., there are rich people in poor countries and poor people in rich countries. In 1996, for example, 22% of the world’s billionaires were from the developing nations.

    In most cases, international agreements are negotiated by elites that have more in common with each other than with working people in the countries that they represent. As a retired U.S. State Department official put it to me bluntly a few years ago, “What you don’t understand,” he said, “is that when we negotiate economic agreements with these poorer countries, we are negotiating with people from the same class. That is, people whose interests are like ours — on the side of capital.”

    Thus, the fundamental purpose of neo-liberal polices of the past 20 years has been to discipline labor in every country in order to free capital from having to bargain with workers over the gains from rising productivity. Such bargaining is the essence of a democratic market system. Although labor is obviously better served when it is organized into trade unions to bargain with a unified voice, the bargaining between labor and capital goes on even if workers are unorganized.

    As in any bargaining, both sides are constantly maneuvering for advantage. But Labor is typically at a disadvantage because it usually bargains under conditions of excess supply of unemployed workers. Moreover, the forced liberalization of finance and trade provides enormous leverage to capital by giving it a threat of fleeing the economy altogether — by freeing it from responsibility to the firm, the community or the nation.

    Uncontrolled globalization, in one stroke, puts government’s domestic policies decisively on the side of capital. In an economy that is growing based on its domestic market, rising wages help everyone because they increase purchasing power and consumer demand — which is the major driver of economic growth in a modern economy. But in an economy whose growth depends on foreign markets, rising domestic wages are a problem, because they make it more difficult to compete internationally.

    Capital’s Gains
    Although one can find a mass of data on the financial interests of the relatively tiny investor class, the mainstream media carries little systematic information on what is happening to the huge class of the world’s workers as a whole. But a look at the trends within countries shows a general deterioration of the position of labor relative to capital — in both developing and developed economies.

    The Global Policy Network, a new group of non-profit research organizations linked to national trade unions movements has so far posted reports on labor conditions in 27 countries on its web site (www.gpn.org). The countries examined include those among the poorest (e.g. Lesotho, Zambia), the most rapidly developing (e.g. Korea and Ireland) and the most developed (Canada, United States). The exact manifestation of labor’s shrinking share of income differs from country to country but there is a common pattern in the concentration of economic growth in the “informal” sector — where workers are unorganized, contingent, and unprotected. That is, where they have little or no bargaining power with capital.

    Argentina is, of course, the latest example of this relentless downward pressure on workers’ living standards. No other country has embraced the neo-liberal paradigm as much as Argentina. The suicidal tying of the peso to the dollar was for years celebrated as the example of what a developing country had to do in order to gain the confidence of foreign investors. One result has been the nearly doubling of the share of the population in extreme poverty as capital relentlessly squeezed labor’s income share. As a report from the Instituto de Estudios y Formacion in Buenos Aires shows, labor productivity among Argentina’s 500 largest firms — which dominates Argentina’s international trade — rose 50% from 1993 to 1998, while real wages rose only 20%. So where did the benefits of increased efficiency go? Within those firms the share of income going to labor dropped from 35% to 28% in five years, while capital’s share rose from 65% to 72%.4 Moreover, much of this capital found its way overseas. Many so-called “foreign” investors are in fact Argentines who have been buying high-interest Argentine bonds with accounts in banks in the United States and Europe.

    Another vivid example of how neo-liberalism negatively affects workers at all levels of development is the North American Free Trade Agreement. Like most recent agreements, NAFTA protects investors at the expense of workers and the environment. Seven years after its implementation, the political protectors of capital in all three countries judge NAFTA a great success, and support the efforts to expand it to all of the Western Hemisphere through the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas.

    But as a recent collaborative study by economists in Canada, Mexico, and the United States shows5, from the perspective of the working people in all three countries, NAFTA has been a failure. All three countries saw a decline in real wages, an upward redistribution of income and a dramatic expansion of the informal sector jobs characterized by insecurity, low pay and no bargaining power.

    Global Class Politics
    All markets require rules and policies. Consequently, they are political institutions. Therefore, just as a global investor class implies a global working class, a global marketplace implies a global politics. Global politics in turn imply global political “parties,” even though they are not formally organized as such.

    The meetings in Davos, and now New York, of the World Economic Forum are in some ways the convention of the global party of capital. We might call it the Investors’ Protection Party. Their convention in New York is paid for by the world’s largest multinational corporations and will be dominated by 1,000 corporate executives, along with 250 government officials, including 20 heads of state. They will be accompanied by lawyers, consultants, journalists and academics who will do business with each other at the receptions and dinners and in the corner of hotel lobbies, just as in any political convention.

    Similarly, this meeting of the World Social Forum here in Porto Alegre is in many ways a convention of a global political party in opposition, which is now searching for a common program with which to oppose the investor’s agenda. The difference between these two “parties” is not, as the media would have it, the difference between globalizers and anti-globalizers. Globalization - in the sense of people exchanging goods and ideas with each other has been going on for several thousand years and will continue. Neither is it a concern with “social” as opposed to the “economic” issues. This meeting is also about economics - an economics that serves society, rather than one that is served by society. In that sense, the core contention between Davos/New York and Porto Alegre is over the rules of the global marketplace — and who will set them.

    Because the Investor Protection Party dominates the global financial institutions, the party in opposition has little real access to forums which might force those institutions to seriously consider alternatives. Demonstrators can temporarily obstruct the workings of the global institutions’ managers. But as the WTO showed by moving its last meeting to Doha, international agencies have the resources and the will to circumvent street demonstrators.

    As a consequence, the leaders of the NGOs, trade union, anti-poverty and religious groups in opposition find themselves drawn into largely fruitless efforts to achieve social justice by lobbying the IMF, the WTO, the World Bank, and other finance and development institutions, which have no intention of making significant change in their program. NGOs may be put on public advisory committees, but the real work goes on in private where representatives of multi-national businesses negotiate the rules.

    The Party of Opposition is thus constantly forced back into a defense of national sovereignty as the only available instrument for achieving social justice. Yet sovereignty is steadily eroding under the relentless pressure of global markets. Moreover, a nationalist politics undercuts the cross-border cooperation needed to balance the cross-border political reach of business and finance. Nationalism perpetuates the myth that national identity is the only factor in determining whether one wins or loses in the global economy. It obscures the common interests of workers in all countries when faced with the alliances of investors in rich and poor nations that now dominate the global marketplace.

    Still, human rights and social justice will become part of the “constitution” of the global marketplace only when enough nation-states demand it. Therefore, if the global opposition is to develop an alliance of its developing and developed country wings, it must pursue a common global program for working people of all nations that reinforces their national struggles for economic and social equity. Such a program would support national democratic movements and leaders who understand that national social contracts cannot be maintained in a global market that lacks one of its own, and that a global social contract cannot be established in the absence of effective social democracy at the national level. We cannot demand “democracy” at the IMF and not within the nations that belong to it.

    The strategy for labor must change the framework of current global political debate in which the investor class pursues its interest across borders, while the working class is constricted by those borders. The creation of a true global alternative requires a perspective through which the interests of workers in all countries are linked. In a global marketplace, workers’ living standards increasingly rise and fall together. When workers in Brazil win a wage increase, it raises the bargaining power of workers in Germany. When workers in Indonesia improve their working conditions, workers in Nigeria benefit. Likewise, when the social safety net is strengthened in one country it helps those struggling for human economic and social rights in other countries as well.

    So long as the struggle is seen as a struggle of nation against nation, the party of Opposition will never be able to mount a credible alternative to the Neo-Liberal paradigm. Only when workers in all countries see that they ultimately have more in common with workers in other nations than they have with the owners of capital in their own country, will they be able to organize effectively. When investors are faced with similar demands for decent pay, healthy working conditions and human dignity at the workplace everywhere, they will be forced to have a serious debate about the economic future of the planet.

    Trade Unions’ Role
    The definition of the global working class cannot be restricted just to unions. Nonetheless, the free trade union movement — that is, the movement of unions democratically elected by workers and accountable only to their membership - play a crucial leadership role for the world’s workers. Labor unions are critical in part because they have the power to deny capital the human resource that is necessary for the generation of profits. The capacity to strike is the ultimate threat to the investor class.

    And just as the Party in Opposition needs the support of organized labor, so labor needs the support of the NGOs and other organizations that rise in opposition to the neo-liberal program.

    In recent years, trade unions and other parts of the Party in Opposition have been working closer together. The coalition of workers and environmentalists in Seattle in 1999 symbolized this effort. And in local struggles against multinational corporations around issues of privatization, pollution and injustice all over the world reflect similar partnerships. One recent example is the coalition of U.S. and Mexican union activists and university Students Against Sweatshops that forced a company producing for Nike to recognize an independent trade union whose leaders had been persecuted for protesting abominable working conditions.

    Through the International Confederation of Free Trade Unions and its regional networks, unions have stepped up their efforts at global collective bargaining and joint organizing campaigns against multinational employers. The global trade union movement was crucial in the struggle against apartheid in South Africa and dictatorships in Korea and Indonesia. Today, unions all over the world are aiding in the struggle against oppression of workers’ voices, from Burma to Colombia to Zimbabwe.

    To move forward in partnership with the other parts of the opposition to neo-liberalism, we will need to pay attention to areas that have sometimes divided trade unions and their allies. One area is the environment. At times, differences have been interpreted as reflecting philosophies of “growth” versus “no growth” in which trade unions are seen as willing to sacrifice the environment in order to save jobs and environmentalists are seen as willing to sacrifice jobs in order to save the environment. This of course allows the investor class to play off one group against the other.

    The real question is not “growth versus no growth” but the creation of a full employment economy that respects and sustains the environment and resource base. By now it is obvious that competitive markets driven by self-interest will maximize the use of resources for immediate consumption. That’s what makes them so “efficient.” Individual firms do not typically accept higher costs in order to preserve the environment, because doing so would put them at a competitive disadvantage. Moreover, there is little incentive for investors who live thousands of miles away from their investment to reduce their profits in order to avoid the environmental costs. Thus, any program to create a sustainable economics that relies on the voluntary efforts of profit-maximizing firms is doomed to failure.

    The solution therefore lies in the democratic regulation of capital and the development of long-term planning — not just land use or water resource planning, but one that includes provision for social safety nets and job opportunities as well. At the margins, of course, there will always be some differences between those whose primary concern is the worker security and those whose primary concern is the environment. Just as there will be differences within the environmental and labor movements. But the key task in building an alternative vision is to create a democratic forum for negotiation, in which those who will pay the price of failing to protect the environment or providing sufficient employment are the ones making the ultimate decision over the allocation of natural resources.

    Another tension that must be resolved involves labor rights and standards in international trade and investment agreements. Although virtually all trade unionists and their allies support such rights and standards, many in the Third World see the effort to enforce them with trade and financial sanctions as a vehicle for first-world protectionism.

    As one Asian economist observed: “The U.S. Treasury runs the International Monetary Fund, and for years urged them to make loans to dictators who squandered the proceeds and are now dead, or retired in the South of France. Then the IMF tells us that the only way to pay their debts is to increase exports made with our cheap labor. When we do, U.S. unions complain that we are undercutting labor standards.”

    On the other hand, trade unionists from developed countries see their third-world brothers and sisters as being too willing to align themselves with multinational capital in opposing social protections through trade and financial agreements. They are skeptical when those in developing countries who claim to be supportive of human rights resist economic sanctions — which, in practical terms, are the only way to preserve those rights.

    One strategy for overcoming this disagreement is to design a “grand bargain” that gives the working people in both developed and developing countries what they need. The bargain starts with the distinction between rights and standards. Collective bargaining is a right that every worker is entitled to, regardless of how rich or poor is his or her society. The wages and benefits that a union settles for, however, will depend on what the particular enterprise can pay. Likewise, all workers should have a right to a minimum wage. But the level of that minimum wage will depend on the economic development level of the country or region.

    Once that distinction is understood, it may be possible for labor organizations and their allies in all countries to reach agreement that would provide enforceable labor rights in exchange for guaranteed commitments of long-term development aid and debt relief. Thus, the developed world would get protection for its social standards, and the developing world would receive the flexibility and capital investment it needs for growth. Incidentally, the issue of labor rights and standards is not just an issue for developing countries but developed ones as well.

    This “grand bargain” that links development with broadly increasing living standards would be connected to planning for sustainable development to create the program elements for a global social contract. Other elements would include:

    • Flexible Development. The one-size-fits-all policies of the international financial agencies have not only failed to produce faster growth, they have allowed the leaders of recipient countries to escape responsibility for their own policies by blaming all their problems on the IMF or World Bank. Therefore, once human and political rights are ensured, countries should have the flexibility to choose their own development path, for which their leadership should be held accountable - to their citizens.
    • Winners Compensating Losers. As long as workers who have to bear the costs of open markets expect that they will be abandoned by the society that profits at their expense, they will resist globalization. So countries need social policies that compensate those who must pay for the benefits of economic integration. Such policies would include increased public spending on health care for the uninsured, worker retraining, adequate pensions, and community redevelopment, as well as more generous unemployment compensation and wage insurance to cushion the blow of moving to lower-paying jobs.
    • Regulated Finance. Volatile financial markets must be tamed. Since no system of global banking regulation is in sight, the simplest solution is the “Tobin Tax” - a tax on international financial transactions. The proceeds would be used for long-term investments in education and health care in poor countries. Such a tax, which has the virtue of being easily understood and can be administered with minimal bureaucratic discretion, is already supported by many influential people around the world. Several years ago, in fact, the government of Canada proposed a discussion of the Tobin Tax for the agenda of the Group of Seven (the major economic powers) meeting in Halifax, but the U.S. Treasury quickly quashed the idea.
    • Coordinated Economic Policy. A fully functioning global economy — like a fully functioning national economy — needs central banking and counter-cyclical public budgets in order to maintain overall growth. But there will be neither a global central bank nor a global government budget for a long time, so these functions must be performed by the governments of the three largest economies - the United States, Europe, and Japan — acting together. Having pressured the world into a system of brutal competition, the major powers have an obligation to maintain sufficient global demand with low interest rates and other macroeconomic policies. Putting pressure on their governments to act is the special responsibility of worker organizations in those countries.

    Conclusion
    A major strategic task before us is the strengthening of the alliance of working people — North and South, East and West — through a common program. This should rest on a “grand bargain” in which the interests of developing and developed country workers are served. Such a grand bargain for labor would also help raise consciousness among the majority of the world’s citizens of the need for international solidarity with each other.

    The task is difficult. But the world’s working majority has two great advantages. One is that it is the vast majority — in every country. The second is that the world’s workers are indispensable. One can imagine a world without multinational investors. It is impossible to imagine a world without workers.

    Thus, the world’s workers broadly defined, have the power to radically change the rules of the global economy. To do it, we need a common program, strong organizations and the realization that — whatever country we live in — we are all in the struggle together.

    1. Weller, Christian E. and Robert E. Scott, and Adam S. Hersh. October 2001. The Unremarkable Record of Liberalized Trade. Washington, D.C.: Economic Policy Institute. 

    2. Faux, Jeff and Lawrence Mishel. 2000. “Inequality and the Global Economy.” In Will Hutton and Anthony Giddens, eds., On the Edge: Living With Global Capitalism, London, U.K.: Jonathan Cape Publishing.

    3. Dalpino, Catherine. Fall 2001.”Globalization & Democracy.” In Brookings Review, Vol. 19. No. 4 Pages 45-48, Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution.

    4. Lozano, Claudio and Eduardo Manjovsky. 2001. Highlights of Labor Market Conditions in Argentina. Global Policy Network, Washington, D.C.: Economic Policy Institute. http://gpn.org/data/argentina.html

    5. Faux, Jeff and Robert Scott (U.S.), Carlos Salas (Mexico), and Bruce Campbell (Canada). 2001. NAFTA at Seven: Its impact on workers in all three nations. Washington, D.C.: Economic Policy Institute. 

    Jeff Faux is the president of the Economic Policy Institute.

    [ POSTED TO VIEWPOINTS ON JANUARY 30, 2002 ]

    Apr 16, 2011

    A Neurologist Makes the Case for Video Games as Learning Tools by Judy Willis MD

    The popularity of video games is not the enemy of education, but rather a model for best teaching strategies. Games insert players at their achievable challenge level and reward player effort and practice with acknowledgement of incremental goal progress, not just final product. The fuel for this process is the pleasure experience related to the release of dopamine.

    Dopamine Motivation

    The human brain, much like that of most mammals, has hardwired physiological responses that had survival value at some point in evolutionary progression. The dopamine-reward system is fueled by the brain’s recognition of making a successful prediction, choice, or behavioral response.

    Dopamine is a neurotransmitter that, when released in higher than usual amounts, goes beyond the synapse and flows to other regions of the brain producing a powerful pleasure response. This is a deep satisfaction, such as quenching a long thirst. After making a prediction, choice, or action, and receiving feedback that it was correct, the reward from the release of dopamine prompts the brain seek future opportunities to repeat the action. For animal survival, this promotes life or species-sustaining choices and behaviors, such as following a new scent that leads to a mate or a meal and remembering that scent the next time it is present.

    No Pain, No Gain

    The survival benefit of the dopamine-reward system is building skills and adaptive responses. The system is only activated and available to promote, sustain, or repeat some mental or physical effort when the outcome is not assured. If there is no risk, there is no reward. If there is no challenge, such as adding single digit numbers by a student who has achieved mastery in adding double-digit numbers, there is activation of the dopamine-reward network.

    In humans, the dopamine reward response that promotes pleasure and motivation also requires that they are aware that they solved a problem, figured out a puzzle, correctly answered a challenging question, or achieved the sequence of movements needed to play a song on the piano or swing a baseball bat to hit a home run. This is why students need to use what they learn in authentic ways that allow them to recognize their progress as clearly as they see it when playing video games.

    Awareness of Incremental Goal Progress

    In a sequential, multilevel video game, feedback of progress is often ongoing, such as accumulating points, visual tokens, or celebratory sound effects, but the real jolt of dopamine reward is in response to the player achieving the challenge, solution, sequence, etc. needed to progress to the next and more challenging level of the game. When the brain receives that feedback that this progress has been made, it reinforces the networks used to succeed. Through a feedback system, that neuronal circuit becomes stronger and more durable. In other words, memory of the mental or physical response used to achieve the dopamine reward is reinforced.

    It may seem counter intuitive to think that children would consider harder work a reward for doing well on a homework problem, test, or physical skill to which they devoted considerable physical or mental energy. Yet, that is just what the video playing brain seeks after experiencing the pleasure of reaching a higher level in the game. A computer game doesn’t hand out cash, toys, or even hugs. The motivation to persevere is the brain seeking another surge of dopamine — the fuel of intrinsic reinforcement.

    Individualized Achievable Challenge

    Individualized achievable challenge level is one where a task, action, or choice is not so easy as to be essentially automatic or 100% successful. When that is the case the brain is not alert for feedback and there is no activation of the dopamine reward response system. The task must also not be perceived as so difficult that there is no chance of success. It is only when the brain perceives a reasonable possibility of success for achieving a desirable goal that it invests the energy and activates the dopamine reward circuit.

    fMRI and cognitive studies reveal that the brain “evaluates” the probability of effort resulting in success before expending the cognitive effort in solving mental problems. If the challenge seems too high, or students have a fixed mindset related past failures that they will not succeed in a subject or topic, the brain is not likely to expend the effort needed to achieve the challenge.

    Brain effort is costly because this three-pound organ needs 20% of the body’s supply of oxygen and glucose to keep its cells alive. The brain operates to conserve its resources unless the energy cost is low or the expectation of reward is high. In the classroom, that is the ideal level of instructional challenge for student motivation.

    When learners have opportunities to participate in learning challenges at their individualized achievable challenge level, their brains invest more effort to the task and are more responsive to feedback. Students working toward clear, desirable goals within their range of perceived achievable challenge, reach levels of engagement much like the focus and perseverance we see when they play their video games.

    Feedback or scaffolding may be needed to support students’ perception that the challenge is achievable, but the levels of mastery are rarely the same for every student in the class. This is when we need to provide opportunities for differentiating and individualizing. These interventions range from clearly scaled rubrics, to small flexible groups for “as needed” support, or collaborative groups through which students can “enter” from their strengths. Descriptions of these strategies, beyond the scope of this article, are found in differentiated instruction literature.

    Game Entry Point is a Perfect Fit Through Pre-assessment and Feedback

    The best on-line learning programs for building students’ missing foundational knowledge use student responses to structure learning at individualized achievable challenge levels. These programs also provide timely corrective and progress-acknowledging feedback that allows the students to correct mistakes, build understanding progressively, and recognize their incremental progress.

    The classroom model can follow suit. Video games with levels of play allow the player to progress quickly through early levels if the gamer already has the skill needed. Gamers reportedly make errors 80% of the time, but the most compelling games give hints, cues, and other feedback so players’ brains have enough expectation of dopamine reward to persevere. The games require practice for the specific skills the player needs to master, without the off-putting requirement to repeat tasks already mastered. This type of game keeps the brain engaged because the dopamine surge is perceived to be within reach if effort and practice are sustained.

    Good games give players opportunities for experiencing intrinsic reward at frequent intervals, when they apply the effort and practice the specific skills they need to get to the next level. The games do not require mastery of all tasks and the completion of the whole game before giving the brain the feedback for dopamine boosts of satisfaction. The dopamine release comes each time the game provides feedback that the player’s actions or responses are correct. The player gains points or tokens for small incremental progress and ultimately the powerful feedback of the success of progressing to the next level. This is when players seek “harder work”. To keep the pleasure of intrinsic satisfaction going, the brain needs a higher level of challenge, because staying at a level once mastery is achieved doesn’t release the dopamine.

    Bringing Incremental Progress Recognition to the Classroom… and Beyond

    In the classroom, the video model can be achieved with timely, corrective feedback so students recognize incorrect foundational knowledge and then have opportunities to strengthen the correct new memory circuits through practice and application. However, individualized instruction, assignments, and feedback, that allow students to consistently work at their individualized achievable challenge levels, are time-consuming processes not possible for teachers to consistently provide all students.

    What we can do is be aware of the reason the brain is so responsive to video game play and keep achievable challenge and incremental progress feedback in mind when planning units of instruction. One way to help each student sustain motivation and effort is to shift progress recognition to students themselves. This can be done by having students use a variety of methods of recording their own progress toward individualized goals. Through brief conferences, goals can be mutually agreed upon, such as number of pages read a week (with comprehension accountability), progression to the next level of the multiplication tables, or achievement of a higher level on a rubric for writing an essay. Free bar graphs downloaded from the Internet can be filled in by students as they record and see evidence of their incremental goal progress. In contrast to the system of recognition delayed until a final product is completed, graphing reveals the incremental progress evidence throughout the learning process. I’ve found that for students who have lost confidence to the point of not wanting to risk more failure, it is helpful to start the effort-to-progress record keeping and graphing with something they enjoy, such as shooting foul shots or computer keyboarding speed and accuracy.

    Immediate Gratification or Long-term Goal Pursuit?

    Compared to an adult brain, a young brain needs more frequent dopamine boosts to sustain effort, persevere through challenges and setbacks, and build the trait of resilience. The brain’s prefrontal cortex, with its executive functions (judgment, analysis, delay of immediate gratification, prioritizing, planning, etc.) will be the subject of a future blog. In relation to the video game model, it is important to plan instruction keeping in mind that the executive function circuits are late to mature – well into the twenties. The visible evidence seen on their graphs or rubric progress evidence helps students develop the concept that effort toward a goal brings progress. This, in turn, builds their capacity to resist their young brain’s strong drive for immediate gratification. As students use visible models to recognize their incremental goal progress, they build the executive function of goal-directed behavior.

    Classroom instruction that provides opportunities for incremental progress feedback at students’ achievable challenge levels pays off with increased focus, resilience, and willingness to revise and persevere toward achievement of goals. The development of students’ awareness of their potentials to achieve success, through effort and response to feedback, extends far beyond the classroom walls. Your application of the video game model to instruction encourages the habits of mind through which your students can achieve their highest academic, social, and emotional potentials.

    Source URL: http://www.edutopia.org/blog/video-games-learning-student-engagement-judy-willis

    Links:
    [1] http://www.edutopia.org/blog/video-games-learning-student-engagement-judy-willis
    [2] http://www.edutopia.org/user/19536

    This article originally published on 4/14/2011 Edutopia: What Works in Education © 2011 The George Lucas Educational Foundation • All rights reserved.
    Apr 15, 2011
    Robert Reich: President Obama's Real Proposal (And Why It's Risky) → robertreich.org

    robertreich:

    Paul Ryan says his budget plan will cut $4.4 trillion over ten years. The President says his new plan will cut $4 trillion over twelve years.

    Let’s get real. Ten or twelve-year budgets are baloney. It’s hard enough to forecast budgets a year or two into the future. Between now and 2022 or 2024…

    Apr 15, 201157 notes

    The Real Housewives of Wall Street Why is the Federal Reserve forking over $220 million in bailout money to the wives of two Morgan Stanley bigwigs?

    America has two national budgets, one official, one unofficial. The official budget is public record and hotly debated: Money comes in as taxes and goes out as jet fighters, DEA agents, wheat subsidies and Medicare, plus pensions and bennies for that great untamed socialist menace called a unionized public-sector workforce that Republicans are always complaining about. According to popular legend, we’re broke and in so much debt that 40 years from now our granddaughters will still be hooking on weekends to pay the medical bills of this year’s retirees from the IRS, the SEC and the Department of Energy.

    Why Isn’t Wall Street in Jail?

    Most Americans know about that budget. What they don’t know is that there is another budget of roughly equal heft, traditionally maintained in complete secrecy. After the financial crash of 2008, it grew to monstrous dimensions, as the government attempted to unfreeze the credit markets by handing out trillions to banks and hedge funds. And thanks to a whole galaxy of obscure, acronym-laden bailout programs, it eventually rivaled the “official” budget in size — a huge roaring river of cash flowing out of the Federal Reserve to destinations neither chosen by the president nor reviewed by Congress, but instead handed out by fiat by unelected Fed officials using a seemingly nonsensical and apparently unknowable methodology.

    This article appears in the April 28, 2011 issue of Rolling Stone. The issue will be available on newsstands and in the online archive April 15.

    Now, following an act of Congress that has forced the Fed to open its books from the bailout era, this unofficial budget is for the first time becoming at least partially a matter of public record. Staffers in the Senate and the House, whose queries about Fed spending have been rebuffed for nearly a century, are now poring over 21,000 transactions and discovering a host of outrages and lunacies in the “other” budget. It is as though someone sat down and made a list of every individual on earth who actually did not need emergency financial assistance from the United States government, and then handed them the keys to the public treasure. The Fed sent billions in bailout aid to banks in places like Mexico, Bahrain and Bavaria, billions more to a spate of Japanese car companies, more than $2 trillion in loans each to Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, and billions more to a string of lesser millionaires and billionaires with Cayman Islands addresses. “Our jaws are literally dropping as we’re reading this,” says Warren Gunnels, an aide to Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. “Every one of these transactions is outrageous.”

    Wall Street’s Big Win

    But if you want to get a true sense of what the “shadow budget” is all about, all you have to do is look closely at the taxpayer money handed over to a single company that goes by a seemingly innocuous name: Waterfall TALF Opportunity. At first glance, Waterfall’s haul doesn’t seem all that huge — just nine loans totaling some $220 million, made through a Fed bailout program. That doesn’t seem like a whole lot, considering that Goldman Sachs alone received roughly $800 billion in loans from the Fed. But upon closer inspection, Waterfall TALF Opportunity boasts a couple of interesting names among its chief investors: Christy Mack and Susan Karches.

    Christy is the wife of John Mack, the chairman of Morgan Stanley. Susan is the widow of Peter Karches, a close friend of the Macks who served as president of Morgan Stanley’s investment-banking division. Neither woman appears to have any serious history in business, apart from a few philanthropic experiences. Yet the Federal Reserve handed them both low-interest loans of nearly a quarter of a billion dollars through a complicated bailout program that virtually guaranteed them millions in risk-free income.

    RS Politics Daily: Political news and commentary from Rolling Stone writers and editors

    The technical name of the program that Mack and Karches took advantage of is TALF, short for Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility. But the federal aid they received actually falls under a broader category of bailout initiatives, designed and perfected by Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, called “giving already stinking rich people gobs of money for no fucking reason at all.” If you want to learn how the shadow budget works, follow along. This is what welfare for the rich looks like.

    In August 2009, John Mack, at the time still the CEO of Morgan Stanley, made an interesting life decision. Despite the fact that he was earning the comparatively low salary of just $800,000, and had refused to give himself a bonus in the midst of the financial crisis, Mack decided to buy himself a gorgeous piece of property — a 107-year-old limestone carriage house on the Upper East Side of New York, complete with an indoor 12-car garage, that had just been sold by the prestigious Mellon family for $13.5 million. Either Mack had plenty of cash on hand to close the deal, or he got some help from his wife, Christy, who apparently bought the house with him.

    The Macks make for an interesting couple. John, a Lebanese-American nicknamed “Mack the Knife” for his legendary passion for firing people, has one of the most recognizable faces on Wall Street, physically resembling a crumpled, half-burned baked potato with a pair of overturned furry horseshoes for eyebrows. Christy is thin, blond and rich — a sort of still-awake Sunny von Bulow with hobbies. Her major philanthropic passion is endowments for alternative medicine, and she has attained the level of master at Reiki, the Japanese practice of “palm healing.” The only other notable fact on her public résumé is that her sister was married to Charlie Rose.

    It’s hard to imagine a pair of people you would less want to hand a giant welfare check to — yet that’s exactly what the Fed did. Just two months before the Macks bought their fancy carriage house in Manhattan, Christy and her pal Susan launched their investment initiative called Waterfall TALF. Neither seems to have any experience whatsoever in finance, beyond Susan’s penchant for dabbling in thoroughbred racehorses. But with an upfront investment of $15 million, they quickly received $220 million in cash from the Fed, most of which they used to purchase student loans and commercial mortgages. The loans were set up so that Christy and Susan would keep 100 percent of any gains on the deals, while the Fed and the Treasury (read: the taxpayer) would eat 90 percent of the losses. Given out as part of a bailout program ostensibly designed to help ordinary people by kick-starting consumer lending, the deals were a classic heads-I-win, tails-you-lose investment.

    So how did the government come to address a financial crisis caused by the collapse of a residential-mortgage bubble by giving the wives of a couple of Morgan Stanley bigwigs free money to make essentially risk-free investments in student loans and commercial real estate? The answer is: by degrees. The history of the bailout era reads like one of those awful stories about what happens when a long-dormant criminal compulsion goes unchecked. The Peeping Tom next door stares through a few bathroom windows, doesn’t get caught, and decides to break in and steal a pair of panties. Next thing you know, he’s upgraded to homemade dungeons, tri-state serial rampages and throwing cheerleaders into a panel truck.

    It was the same with the bailouts. They started out small, with the government throwing a few hundred billion in public money to prop up genuinely insolvent firms like Bear Stearns and AIG. Then came TARP and a few other programs that were designed to stave off bank failures and dispose of the toxic mortgage-backed securities that were a root cause of the financial crisis. But before long, the Fed began buying up every distressed investment on Wall Street, even those that were in no danger of widespread defaults: commercial real estate loans, credit- card loans, auto loans, student loans, even loans backed by the Small Business Administration. What started off as a targeted effort to stop the bleeding in a few specific trouble spots became a gigantic feeding frenzy. It was “free money for shit,” says Barry Ritholtz, author of Bailout Nation. “It turned into ‘Give us your crap that you can’t get rid of otherwise.’ “

    The impetus for this sudden manic expansion of the bailouts was a masterful bluff by Wall Street executives. Once the money started flowing from the Federal Reserve, the executives began moaning to their buddies at the Fed, claiming that they were suddenly afraid of investing in anything — student loans, car notes, you name it — unless their profits were guaranteed by the state. “You ever watch soccer, where the guy rolls six times to get a yellow card?” says William Black, a former federal bank regulator who teaches economics and law at the University of Missouri. “That’s what this is. If you have power and connections, they will give you a freebie deal — if you’re good at whining.”

    This is where TALF fits into the bailout picture. Created just after Barack Obama’s election in November 2008, the program’s ostensible justification was to spur more consumer lending, which had dried up in the midst of the financial crisis. But instead of lending directly to car buyers and credit-card holders and students — that would have been socialism! — the Fed handed out a trillion dollars to banks and hedge funds, almost interest-free. In other words, the government lent taxpayer money to the same assholes who caused the crisis, so that they could then lend that money back out on the market virtually risk-free, at an enormous profit.

    Cue your Billy Mays voice, because wait, there’s more! A key aspect of TALF is that the Fed doles out the money through what are known as non-recourse loans. Essentially, this means that if you don’t pay the Fed back, it’s no big deal. The mechanism works like this: Hedge Fund Goon borrows, say, $100 million from the Fed to buy crappy loans, which are then transferred to the Fed as collateral. If Hedge Fund Goon decides not to repay that $100 million, the Fed simply keeps its pile of crappy securities and calls everything even.

    This is the deal of a lifetime. Think about it: You borrow millions, buy a bunch of crap securities and stash them on the Fed’s books. If the securities lose money, you leave them on the Fed’s lap and the public eats the loss. But if they make money, you take them back, cash them in and repay the funds you borrowed from the Fed. “Remember that crazy guy in the commercials who ran around covered in dollar bills shouting, ‘The government is giving out free money!’ ” says Black. “As crazy as he was, this is making it real.”

    This whole setup — in which millionaires and billionaires gambled on mountains of dangerous securities, with taxpayers providing the stake and assuming almost all of the risk — is the reason that it’s insanely premature for Wall Street to claim that the bailouts have actually made money for the government. We simply can’t make that determination until the final bill comes in on all the dicey securities we financed during the bailout feeding frenzy.

    In the case of Waterfall TALF Opportunity, here’s what we know: The company was founded in June 2009 with $14.87 million of investment capital, money that likely came from Christy Mack and Susan Karches. The two Wall Street wives then used the $220 million they got from the Fed to buy up a bunch of securities, including a large pool of commercial mortgages managed by Credit Suisse, a company John Mack once headed. Those securities were valued at $253.6 million, though the Fed refuses to explain how it arrived at that estimate. And here’s the kicker: Of the $220 million the two wives got from the Fed, roughly $150 million had not been paid back as of last fall — meaning that you and I are still on the hook for most of whatever the Wall Street spouses bought on their government-funded shopping spree.

    The public has no way of knowing how much Christy Mack and Susan Karches earned on these transactions, because the Fed has repeatedly declined to provide any information about how it priced the individual securities bought as part of programs like TALF. In the Waterfall deal, for instance, we know the Fed pledged some $14 million against a block of securities called “Credit Suisse Commercial Mortgage Trust Series 2007-C2” — but that data is meaningless without knowing how many units were bought. It’s like saying the Fed gave Waterfall $14 million to buy cars. Did Waterfall pay $5,000 per car, or $500,000? We have no idea. “There’s no way of validating or invalidating the Fed’s process in TALF without this pricing information,” says Gary Aguirre, a former SEC official who was fired years ago after he tried to interview John Mack in an insider-trading case.

    In early April, in an attempt to learn exactly how much Mack and Karches made on the TALF deals, Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa wrote a letter to Waterfall asking 21 detailed questions about the transactions. In addition, Sen. Sanders has personally asked Fed chief Bernanke to provide more complete information on the TALF loans given not only to Christy Mack but to gazillionaires like former Miami Dolphins owner H. Wayne Huizenga and hedge-fund shark John Paulson. But Bernanke bluntly refused to provide the information — and the Fed has similarly stonewalled other oversight agencies, including the General Accounting Office and TARP’s special inspector general.

    Christy Mack and Susan Karches did not respond to requests for comments for this story. But even without more information about the loans they got from the Fed, we know that TALF wasn’t the only risk-free money being handed over to Wall Street. During the financial crisis, the Fed routinely made billions of dollars in “emergency” loans to big banks at near-zero interest. Many of the banks then turned around and used the money to buy Treasury bonds at higher interest rates — essentially loaning the money back to the government at an inflated rate. “People talk about how these were loans that were paid back,” says a congressional aide who has studied the transactions. “But when the state is lending money at zero percent and the banks are turning around and lending that money back to the state at three percent, how is that different from just handing rich people money?”

    Those kinds of deals were the essence of the bailout — and the vast mountains of near-zero government cash turned companies facing bankruptcy into monstrous profit machines. In 2008 and 2009, while Christy Mack was busy getting her little TALF loans for $220 million, her husband’s bank hauled in $2 trillion in emergency Fed loans. During the same period, Goldman borrowed nearly $800 billion. Shortly afterward, the two banks reported a combined annual profit of $14.5 billion.

    As crazy as it is to lend to banks at near zero percent and borrow back from them at three percent, one could at least argue that the policy may have aided American companies by providing banks more cash to lend. But how do you explain the host of other bailout transactions now being examined by Congress? Like the Fed’s massive purchases of securities in foreign automakers, including BMW, Volkswagen, Honda, Mitsubishi and Nissan? Or the nearly $5 billion in cheap credit the Fed extended to Toyota and Mitsubishi? Sure, those companies have factories and dealerships in the U.S. — but does it really make sense to give them free cash at the same time taxpayers were being asked to bail out Chrysler and GM? Seems a little crazy to fund the competition of the very automakers you’re trying to rescue.

    And then there are the bailout deals that make no sense at all. Republicans go mad over spending on health care and school for Mexican illegals. So why aren’t they flipping out over the $9.6 billion in loans the Fed made to the Central Bank of Mexico? How do we explain the $2.2 billion in loans that went to the Korea Development Bank, the biggest state bank of South Korea, whose sole purpose is to promote development in South Korea? And at a time when America is borrowing from the Middle East at interest rates of three percent, why did the Fed extend $35 billion in loans to the Arab Banking Corporation of Bahrain at interest rates as low as one quarter of one point?

    Even more disturbing, the major stakeholder in the Bahrain bank is none other than the Central Bank of Libya, which owns 59 percent of the operation. In fact, the Bahrain bank just received a special exemption from the U.S. Treasury to prevent its assets from being frozen in accord with economic sanctions. That’s right: Muammar Qaddafi received more than 70 loans from the Federal Reserve, along with the Real Housewives of Wall Street.

    Perhaps the most irritating facet of all of these transactions is the fact that hundreds of millions of Fed dollars were given out to hedge funds and other investors with addresses in the Cayman Islands. Many of those addresses belong to companies with American affiliations — including prominent Wall Street names like Pimco, Blackstone and … Christy Mack. Yes, even Waterfall TALF Opportunity is an offshore company. It’s one thing for the federal government to look the other way when Wall Street hotshots evade U.S. taxes by registering their investment companies in the Cayman Islands. But subsidizing tax evasion? Giving it a federal bailout? What the fuck?

    As America girds itself for another round of lunatic political infighting over which barely-respirating social program or urgently necessary federal agency must have their budgets permanently sacrificed to the cause of billionaires being able to keep their third boats in the water, it’s important to point out just how scarce money isn’t in certain corners of the public-spending universe. In the coming months, when you watch Republican congressional stooges play out the desperate comedy of solving America’s deficit problems by making fewer photocopies of proposed bills, or by taking an ax to budgetary shrubberies like NPR or the SEC, remember Christy Mack and her fancy new carriage house. There is no belt-tightening on the other side of the tracks. Just a free lunch that never ends.

    Apr 14, 2011
    Culture trumps biology in language development, study argues

    latimes.com

    Researchers construct evolutionary trees for four linguistic groups and conclude that cultures, not innate preferences, drive the language rules humans create – contrary to the findings of noted linguists Noam Chomsky and Joseph Greenberg.

    By Amina Khan, Los Angeles Times

    April 14, 2011

    Are the rules of language encoded in our genes, or are they primarily shaped by the speaker’s cultural context?

    Leading linguistic thinkers have argued that our brains are hard-wired for languages to follow certain sets of rules. But a team of scientists is challenging that premise in a study published online Wednesday in the journal Nature.

    The team used biological tools to construct evolutionary trees for four language families and found that each of the families followed its own idiosyncratic structural rules, a sign that humans’ language choices are driven by culture rather than innate preferences.

    The authors say their findings run contrary to the idea of Noam Chomsky’s generative grammar, which says the brain has hard and fast ordering rules for language. They also contradict the “universal rules” of Joseph H. Greenberg, who said languages tended to choose certain patterns over others.

    “Culture trumps the innate structure of the human mind,” said study coauthor Russell Gray, an evolutionary psychologist at the University of Auckland in New Zealand. “We need to take much more seriously the role of cultural factors in changing language diversity.”

    But many linguists challenged the study’s conclusions and said that, in any event, they did not contradict Greenberg’s ideas.

    About 7,000 languages are spoken today, each with a unique blend of sounds, words and structure. Some languages place the verb near the beginning of a sentence, while others stick it at the end. Some have genitives (like the possessive in “Mary’s dog”); others do not.

    For decades, linguists have studied the diverse structures of languages with the idea that there are underlying principles all languages follow — principles that many presumed were programmed into our brains.

    Chomsky argued that a small set of hard-wired rules determined the underlying structure of all languages. Greenberg statistically analyzed a multitude of languages and identified a universal list of ordering relationships within them. For example, if a language puts verbs before objects (as in the English “eat bagels”), it also will put prepositions before nouns (“in school”). But if it puts verbs after objects, it will have postpositions instead (as Hindi does).

    To test whether languages followed such rules as they evolved, Gray’s team built four family trees. One was based on 82 Indo-European languages (including Spanish, English and Hindi), another was based on 400 Austronesian (including Indonesian and Hawaiian), a third analyzed 34 Uto-Aztecan (including Hopi and Yaqui) and a fourth included 73 Bantu (as well as two Bantoid) languages.

    Theoretically, if a language changed its verb ordering, for instance, its preposition ordering would switch too. But the data showed that this didn’t happen consistently — some languages would change one rule without changing the other.

    Gray’s team also looked at eight of Greenberg’s ordering categories (verb-object, adjective-noun and others) and mapped how they were related within each language family. If Greenberg had been right, they said, the four language families would share similar relationships between these categories.

    Instead, the researchers found that while there were strong correlations within families, there were few similarities across them.

    “Rather than being constrained by our psychology, they’re constrained by the local features of the language,” Gray said.

    However, many linguists criticized the study for misunderstanding the foundational linguistics theories it claimed to contradict.

    According to Greenberg’s model, languages change gradually, so it’s not necessarily surprising that the object-verb order could change without an accompanying change in preposition-noun order, said William Croft, a linguist at the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque. “You’d expect one order to change first, then the other,” he said.

    “There are many logically possible word orders that languages could choose, and don’t,” UC Davis psychologist and typologist John Hawkins said. And since the study doesn’t consider other factors that contribute to language development, he said, it “leaves you with a somewhat unsatisfactory taste.”

    amina.khan@latimes.com

    Copyright © 2011, Los Angeles Times

    Apr 14, 2011
    How to Spend Your Way to Happiness (Part One) Thursday, 14th April 2011 (by April Dykman)  This post is from staff writer April Dykman.

    You know the old adage “money can’t buy happiness”? Researchers Elizabeth Dunn, Dan Gilbert, and Timothy Wilson say it’s a myth. Drawing on empirical research, they’ve identified key ways that people can get more bliss for their buck.

    The link between money and happiness has been studied for decades, and the result is always the same: Money does buy happiness — but less than most of us think. After a certain point — having basic needs met and a little “play money” in your pocket — having more money doesn’t create more happiness. But Dunn, Gilbert, and Wilson wanted to know why.

    The fuzzy, feel-good answer is that the things that make us the happiest — love, friendship, and the like — can’t be bought. While the authors admit this is a lovely sentiment, they also found that it’s wrong. Last November, they published the results of their research in a paper aptly titled, “If Money Doesn’t Make You Happy Then You’re Probably Not Spending It Right” [PDF]

    The authors point to studies that show how money gives people:

    • more control of their lives
    • more free time to spend with loved ones
    • longer, healthier lives
    • a buffer against stress and harm

    These are all elements that have been identified in studies as sources of happiness. So, if rich people are able to afford top medical care, a summer in the south of France with their family, and seeking out a meaningful career — elements of a happy life — why aren’t they proportionately happier than those who have less money?

    Humans don’t know what will make them happy
    The main reason is that people don’t know how to spend their money to cultivate happiness. “Money is an opportunity for happiness,” Dunn and her colleagues write, “but it is an opportunity that people routinely squander because the things they think will make them happy often don’t.”

    Whenever we’re presented with a choice, it’s human nature to try to predict the future outcome of each option. But the researchers found quite a few studies that show that humans are horrible at making accurate predictions.

    • For one thing, we underestimate how easy it is for us to adapt to our circumstances — good or bad — and our predicted scenarios lack important details.
    • Second, the context in which we make our predictions is not the context in which we will have the future experience.

    These two factors mean we are awful at predicting what will make us happy, how happy it will make us, and how long it will make us happy.

    How to spend your way to happiness
    An individual might be unable to forecast what will make her happiest, but luckily empirical data can make up for human error. The researchers found eight key ways that spending can increase happiness. We’ll cover the first three today (and the last five next week).

    Tip #1: Buy fewer material goods but more experiences.
    Experiences keep us in the here-and-now, and often only get better with age. When you buy a material good, however, you adapt to it more quickly and witness your purchase becoming worn and less “shiny” over time. We anticipate and remember experiences more than things — you probably fondly recall the Thai cooking class you took with your spouse on your second date, but never give much thought to the living room furniture you bought last year.

    Also, it’s more difficult to obsess about the option you didn’t take with experiences, and ruminating over roads not traveled is a fast path to unhappiness. For example, you’re deciding between two car models, you make your purchase, and then you see an article in Consumer Reports showing the other model to be far superior. Ouch. Suddenly you’re a lot less happy with your shiny new toy. But if you’re deciding between a wine tasting trip in Tuscany or climbing Machu Picchu in Peru, can you really go wrong? It’s much more difficult to compare two wholly different, but probably equally amazing, experiences. It’s unlikely you’ll regret either option.

    I’ve always liked the idea of spending on experiences, but I never thought about how it can curb buyer’s remorse, which can be a huge source of unhappiness for me. I’m a planner and a researcher by nature, which means I am usually trying to buy the best item at the best price. Ihate finding out that the Blu-Ray player we finally settled on (after two years of limping our DVD/VHS player along) doesn’t do everything advertised. But with experiences, I’m spared that. My birthday is next week, and I’m deciding between the new farmhouse-inspired, Japanese fusion restaurant and the sophisticated-yet-casual locavore cafe with a European flair. I don’t think I can compare or go wrong — the experiences would just be different.

    Finally, the researchers point out that experiences are usually shared with others, and other people are one of our greatest sources of happiness.

    Tip #2: Use money to help others.
    I loved this tidbit from the paper: Only termites, eusocial insects, and naked mole rats create social networks as complex as the ones humans construct, and we are the only known species to include unrelated individuals in our networks. In other words, even the most introverted among us are still highly social creatures in comparison with every other species on the planet.

    One study showed that, even after controlling for income, people who spent more money on prosocial spending (gifts for others and donations to charity) were happier than those who spent less. Personal spending (bills, expenses, and gifts oneself) was shown to be unrelated to happiness. Another study showed how the rewards of prosocial spending are detectable at the neural level — activating brain areas typically associated with receiving rewards.

    The authors write:

    Although the benefits of prosocial spending are robust across cultures and methodologies, they are invisible to many people. Surveying UBC students…a significant majority made an affective forecasting error: they thought that spending money on themselves would make them happier than spending on others. Indeed, simply thinking about money has been shown to undermine prosocial impulses, making people less likely to donate to charity or help acquaintances. Although money can and should promote happiness, the mere thought of money may undermine its ability to do so.

    This is one area where we seem to make inaccurate predictions about spending and happiness.

    Tip #3: Buy fewer expensive pleasures and favor of more frequent, less expensive ones.
    Because of our ability to adapt so quickly to change and new things, there’s evidence that indulging in more frequent and less expensive pleasures will make us happier than less-frequent, luxury goods.

    Small pleasures are usually a different experience every time. Things like a massage, a drink with your friends, or tickets to a local performance are never exactly the same, and therefore it takes more time for us to adapt to them. If you decided to forgo those pleasures to afford a brand-new set of living room furniture, you might find your self adapting to the furniture and the newness and excitement wearing off faster than you thought it would. You sit on it every day, it’s the same experience every time — and is that a juice stain on the cushion?!

    Another study showed that “breaking up” a pleasurable experience, rather than receiving it all at once, increases happiness. In one study, one group of participants was given a long, continuous massage, and another group was given two shorter massages with a break in between. Before the massage, the majority of participants predicted that they would rather have one continuous massage (I know I would!). Turns out that those who had the shorter massages with the break found the experience was more pleasurable and they’d be willing to pay more (Oh. I guess Iwouldn’t.)

    I think this is why telling folks to give up their lattes is great advice on paper, but ineffective in real life. For example, I love coffee. Love. I make it at home now that I work at home, but when I had a 9-to-5 gig, when I had to face days of traffic and meetings and office politics and is-it-Friday-yet, my overpriced latte from the coffee shop was one of the highlights of my day. Really. I was Norm and this was my Cheers — everybody knew my name; everybody knew my drink. Having that warm, frothy beverage in my hand made clocking in at the cube farm a little more bearable.

    Why is shorter and more frequent better? The researchers found that these little pleasures, like our morning cup of java, allow us to enjoy more first moments, which are tied to our perceptions of happiness. It’s like having ten first bites of cake, as opposed to eating the entire cake in one sitting.

    To be continued…
    Next week, I’ll cover five more ways the researchers found that money can indeed buy happiness, including what not to buy and the pitfalls of comparison shopping. In the meantime, have you found these first three tips to be true for you? Share specific examples if you have them!

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    This article is about Consumerism, Psychology  

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    1. LifeAndMyFinances says:14 April 2011 at 4:10 am

      Great points April. I’ve always wondered this myself – if money doesn’t make one happy, but love and relationships do, then why not just use the money to spend more time with your loved ones?

      It seems fairly obvious, but I suppose it’s in the human nature to acquire “stuff”, and lots of it. The more we have, the cooler we look, but the emptier we feel.

      Good message – use your money to increase the quality of your relationships, and you’ll be happier for it.

      Reply
    2. ArandomPerson says:14 April 2011 at 5:27 am

      Tip #3: I do this with booze. I rarely drink now (after losing a silly amount of weight 150lbs, part of it due to stopping the drinking), but when I do I have a dusty collection of old, very good, rums.

      So I have a glass every month or so…and it is wonderful. I enjoy it so much more then having a drink or two every night.

      #2 After every Xmas I throw a party for my friends. They are not supposed to bring presents or anything besides themselves. I make sure everyone has a gift or three, that there is a nice spread, decorations, etc. The point of the party is to make my friends happy…and one way is to have a Xmas party where they do not have to bring/do anything at all. Just enjoy themselves and each other. Sure it costs me a bit but I budget for it and I have a great time. Mainly because I can see that my friends are having fun without any holiday stress.

      Is this really using money to ‘help’ others? I dunno, but the post-xmas party was designed to reduce my friend’s holiday stress and it seems to work.

      Nice post.

      Reply
      • DreamChaser57 says:14 April 2011 at 5:44 am

        Congrats on the weight loss – impressive. Your party sounds fabulous! I’m not that fond of potluck dinner except with very close family – it’s hard to have a uniform presentation, all the food might not be there at once, people leave and want their dishes etc. etc.

        Reply
    3. DreamChaser57 says:14 April 2011 at 5:37 am

      Buy less ‘Stuff’ and more ‘Experiences’ is becoming conventional Personal Finance wisdom -the inherent problem with conventional wisdom is that it is often mindlessly parroted and researchers might have a pre-disposition to certain outcomes in studies. Stuff and Experiences are not always polar opposites on the happiness meter. Someone with a large yard might purchase an expensive riding lawnmower and recapture several hours to spend with family instead of toiling in the yard. A big screen television or basement renovation might encourage more family interaction and teens might be more willing to bring their friends by to entertain instead of being in the streets, a win-win for parents. A new car or even a “new” used car might save someone hundreds of dollars in repair bills or as a woman I refuse to stand on the side of the road with smoke billowing from the hood or holding my breath to see if the car starts.

      Some people collect vacations like stamps having no regard for their finances, bragging about their next adventure to friends and casual acquaintances – they may spend it tethered to their Blackberries, point being is that Experiences are not intrinsically good or somehow the pursuit of Experiences exists on a higher moral plane.

      Stuff and Experiences if we’re not careful can derail our efforts to become financially independent, we have to be diligent. Some Experiences may costs thousands of dollars.

      Another piece of conventional “PF” wisdom that irks me is the notion that a student loan is “good” debt, having the burden of a hefty loan payment limits life choices. Labeling it good means that students might not pursue cheaper alternatives. Student loan debt is particularly insidious because it cannot be discharged in bankruptcy, saving 20% down payment for a home is quite elusive if hundreds of dollars are committed to a monthly payment, and couples have to forego or delay having a family because there is simply no room in the budget for daycare because of a loan. The best type of debt is no debt.

      Reply
      • Kathryn says:14 April 2011 at 6:06 am

        No debt is definitely the best debt, but as someone who amassed 20k in student loans to get a great job starting at 60k salary, sometimes you just have to make the investment. No longer is it possible to work your way through college on a part time job. I worked at the school and on all breaks, but without the student loan options, I could not have finished in less than 6-7 years (as is, I did it in 3.5).

        So while student loans are absolutely not ‘good’ debt, they aren’t as bad as some investments. With the job my degree prepared me for, I’ll be out of debt in a couple years, and on my way to financial independence quicker than if I had not gotten the debt in the first place.

        Reply
      • cc says:14 April 2011 at 6:29 am

        thank you!
        for years i have been without a living room couch. we are saving up for one and a couple months away from getting one. I AM PSYCHED.
        experiences are great and all, but sometimes you just want a nice couch.

        Reply
        • DreamChaser57 says:14 April 2011 at 6:45 am

          Aaaaaaaaaaggggggggghhhhhhhh, the wonder and joys of a new couch, we just replaced our living room furniture and it’s like a dream, comfy and cozy. The old couch had a back-busting sink in the middle, was stained, and the fabric absorbed smells. *YUCK* Our new furniture is the gift that keeps on giving.

          Reply
    4. Meredith M says:14 April 2011 at 5:37 am

      Thanks for bringing this research to my attention, April. Here’s another way that experiences prevent buyer’s remorse: whether you liked it or not, once the experience is over, it’s really over. For instance, my husband and I went to see Spamalot last week, thinking we would like it, but we hated it. I did kind of wish I had the price of the tickets back, but I thought about how I would feel if we had bought an object that we ended up hating for the same price. Not only would we have spent the money, we would now have a useless thing taking up storage space. I would feel guilty for buying it every time I saw it, yet I’d hang onto it for months, maybe years, thinking, “I can’t get rid of that! I spent good money on it!” I might get back a few dollars selling it, but it wouldn’t make up for the hassle of owning and getting rid of it. With Spamalot, my emotional investment in it is already over, allowing it to become an object of jokes between my husband and me.

      Reply
    5. Nicole says:14 April 2011 at 5:43 am

      Very neat article. Thanks!

      Reply
    6. Kathryn says:14 April 2011 at 5:58 am

      So, here’s an interesting question. Are video games objects or experiences? How about socially interactive games, like World of Warcraft?

      Reply
      • J.D. Roth says:14 April 2011 at 6:06 amWell, as I’m sure Tyler K will be along to note (and, in fact, DreamCatcher57 already has), sometimes there’s not much of a difference between things and experiences. Your example is a good one. (Although games like World of Warcraft have other drawbacks that lead to unhappiness — but that’s a subject for a different article on a different website.)

        I think the research into Stuff vs. Experiences is interesting, and my own life seems to support it, but I also think it’s important not to take it as an absolute. There are certainly times that buying things can bring happiness. Lame example, I know, but I love my wool t-shirts. They’re kind of expensive, but I’ve been wearing them for nearly a year, and they make me look forward to getting dressed every day. (Yes, I’m strange. I know that already.) Other people enjoy their televisions. And so on.

        So, in general, experiences bring more happiness than things. But there are certainly exceptions.

        Reply
        • Nicole says:14 April 2011 at 6:19 am

          Like I’ve said before on many of these discussions… probably it means that people in general have too much stuff and not enough experiences, so the marginal utility of an additional experience is greater than that of an additional unit of stuff. Those of us who travel a lot don’t feel the need to travel anymore because we’ve long since hit diminishing marginal returns to happiness on travel.

          I should write a post on that so I can just link to it the next time this comes up.

          Reply
        • DreamChaser57 says:14 April 2011 at 6:41 am

          JD – who is DreamCatcher!?! I’m DreamChaser. *hmphf*

          Reply
    7. Easter says:14 April 2011 at 6:01 am

      I enjoyed this article very much, but I have to agree with DreamChaser57. I dislike the idea that experiences are inherently better than “stuff.” My husband and I recently spent quite a bit of money on living room furniture – yes, just like your “stuff is bad” example. We bought new living room furniture and a new television and had recessed lighting and a ceiling fan installed in the room. We are thrilled with every penny we spent! The living room used to be a dark, uncomfortable room that the family barely used. Now, it’s everyone’s favorite room. Our next big purchase will be landscaping our yard – again, it’s “stuff,” but it will effectively increase the square footage of our property because it will go from a space we ignore to a space we love. I tend to be suspicious of false dichotomies – stuff bad, experiences good. It depends. There are other variables.

      Reply
    8. Another Kate says:14 April 2011 at 6:47 am

      Here’s an interesting coincidence: The latest post on the Happiness Project blog is “Nine Tips to Quit Nagging.” Tip number 8 is to think about how money might be able to buy you happiness — in the form of services, such as prepared food or help mowing the lawn, which can reduce conflicts in a relationship. I know J.D. has addressed spending money to reduce chore conflicts as well.

      Reply
    Apr 14, 2011
    Robert Reich: Mr. President: Why Medicare Isn't the Problem, It's the Solution → robertreich.org

    robertreich:

    I hope when he tells America how he aims to tame future budget deficits the President doesn’t accept conventional Washington wisdom that the biggest problem in the federal budget is Medicare (and its poor cousin Medicaid).

    Medicare isn’t the problem. It’s the solution.

    The real problem is the…

    Apr 14, 2011143 notes
    Apr 14, 20115 notes
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